城市非定线旅游客运运力规划方法——以昆明为例

发布时间：2018-05-23 20:20

本文选题：交通工程 + 旅游客运运力规划　；参考：《公路交通科技》2017年11期

【摘要】：非定线旅游客运运力的科学规划,能够通过引导旅游客运车辆规模的合理发展为城市旅游业提供运输保障。针对目前非定线旅游客运运力规划主要依靠经验、缺乏系统定量分析方法的不足,在分析影响运力供给与需求因素的基础上,基于工作负荷提出了非定线旅游客运运力的规划流程。以旅游客运系统运行效率最优为目标,同时考虑运力弹性空间,建立运力规划模型,并以昆明市为实例进行了验证。结果表明:2016年昆明市非定线旅游客运运力的合适规模为2 132~2 244 veh旅游客车,预计2018年所需运力将达2 380~2 506 veh旅游客车;在最优工作负荷条件下的运力规划方案,2016年前3季度客车工作负荷为75.23%,旅游客运系统整体运行效率较高,优于现有运力方案;少数月份客车工作负荷超过80%,但弹性参数的设置,较好地解决了旅游旺季及个别突发状况而导致的运力紧张问题,使运力的供给与需求能够长期保持较优匹配。所提出的运力规划方法能够改善传统决策缺乏系统定量分析的缺陷,为城市非定线旅游客运运力规划决策提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:The scientific planning of passenger transport capacity of non-fixed line tourism can provide transportation guarantee for urban tourism by guiding the reasonable development of tourist passenger transport vehicle scale. Based on the analysis of the factors affecting the supply and demand of transport capacity, the current planning of passenger transport capacity of non-fixed line tourism mainly depends on experience and lacks of systematic quantitative analysis method. Based on workload, the planning process of non-fixed line passenger transport capacity is proposed. Aiming at the optimal operation efficiency of tourist passenger transport system and considering the elastic space of transportation capacity, the model of capacity planning is established, and the model is verified by the example of Kunming City. The results show that the suitable scale of passenger transport capacity of non-fixed route tourism in Kunming in 2016 is 2132n2244 veh, and it is estimated that the required capacity will reach 2380,2506 veh in 2018. Under the optimal working load condition, the passenger train workload in the first three quarters of 2016 is 75.23. The overall operating efficiency of the tourist passenger transport system is higher than that of the existing transport capacity plan, while in a few months the bus workload exceeds 80 percent, but the elastic parameters are set. It can solve the problem of shortage of capacity caused by the peak season of tourism and individual emergencies, and make the supply and demand of capacity match well for a long time. The proposed transport capacity planning method can improve the defects of the traditional decision-making which lacks systematic quantitative analysis and provides the theoretical basis for the decision of urban non-fixed line tourism passenger transport capacity planning.
【作者单位】：昆明理工大学交通工程学院;云南综合交通发展与区域物流管理智库;昆明理工大学社会科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71563023;41501174) 云南省应用基础研究重点项目(2015FA019) 云南省省院省校教育合作人文社科研究项目(SYSX201611)
【分类号】：F542.8;F592.7

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