基于非集计模型的区域运输通道方式划分研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 15:37

本文选题：区域运输通道 + 非集计　；参考：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：区域运输通道是区域内城市间人员和物资交流的桥梁和纽带,构建高效的运输通道可以促进社会资源的有效利用,对带动区域城市经济发展具有重要作用。我国正处于高速铁路大发展的阶段,各主要运输通道将先后引入高速铁路这种大运量的客运方式,必将对未来通道内的客运市场结构带来巨大影响,科学地预测在引入高速铁路后的通道内的客运结构具有重要意义。论文在国内外关于运输通道及通道方式划分的研究现状的基础上,分析了客运通道的构成及通道内各方式客流的特征及旅客出行选择影响因素,构建出基于非集计原理的运输通道方式划分模型,并以郑州-济南客运通道为实例进行分析,验证了模型的有效性。本文首先对运输通道的客运系统进行分析,对运输通道定义和形成机理进行了阐述,分析了运输通道客运系统的两大要素——运输工具和客流的特征,剖析了各运输方式的技术经济特点和不同运输方式旅客的出行特征,总结了旅客出行过程及方式选择影响因素。然后比较分析了运输通道方式划分的两大方法——集计方法和非集计方法的不同点,得出了非集计模型优于集计模型的结论,阐述了非集计模型的原理及形式,介绍了非集计模型参数标定的常用方法和工具。在确定了研究方法的基础上,提出在对RP和SP调查数据分析的前提下,把握通道内旅客出行规律,合理选择效用函数变量,借助TransCAD软件平台对模型参数进行标定,并通过统计检验方法对模型的有效性和实用性进行验证,根据对未来年通道特征的假设,运用Logit模型得到通道方式划分结果。最后,论文以郑济通道为例,对未来年通道内的四种运输方式的合理分担率进行了预测。
[Abstract]:Regional transportation channel is a bridge and link for the exchange of personnel and materials among cities in the region. The construction of an efficient transportation channel can promote the effective use of social resources and play an important role in promoting the economic development of regional cities. Our country is in the stage of the development of high-speed railway, each major transportation channel will introduce the high-speed railway as the passenger transport mode of large volume one after another, which will bring great influence to the structure of the passenger transport market in the future channel. It is of great significance to predict scientifically the passenger structure in the passage after the introduction of high-speed railway. On the basis of the current situation of research on the division of transportation channels and channels at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the structure of passenger channels, the characteristics of passenger flow in each mode and the influencing factors of passenger travel choice. Based on the principle of disaggregate, the model of transportation channel partition is constructed, and the validity of the model is verified by taking Zhengzhou-Jinan passenger corridor as an example. Firstly, this paper analyzes the passenger transport system of the transport corridor, expounds the definition and formation mechanism of the transport channel, and analyzes the characteristics of the two major elements of the passenger transport system of the transport corridor-the means of transport and the passenger flow. This paper analyzes the technical and economic characteristics of each mode of transportation and the travel characteristics of passengers of different modes of transport, and summarizes the travel process and factors affecting the choice of modes. Then, the differences between the two major methods of transportation channel partitioning, that is, the lumped method and the disaggregate method, are compared and analyzed, and the conclusion that the disaggregate model is superior to the lumped model is obtained, and the principle and form of the disaggregate model are expounded. The common methods and tools for parameter calibration of disaggregate model are introduced. On the basis of determining the research method, this paper puts forward that under the premise of analyzing the data of RP and SP investigation, we can grasp the travel law of passengers in the passage, select the utility function variables reasonably, and calibrate the model parameters with the help of TransCAD software platform. The validity and practicability of the model are verified by the statistical test method. According to the hypothesis of the channel characteristics in the future year, the Logit model is used to obtain the channel pattern partition results. Finally, taking Zheng Ji Channel as an example, this paper predicts the reasonable share rate of the four modes of transportation in the coming years.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U111

【参考文献】