基于演化机理分析的客运供给结构优化理论与方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 22:10

本文选题：运输经济 + 综合运输体系　；参考：《北京交通大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：我国已步入经济转型期和改革攻坚期,交通运输的发展模式已由改革开放初期的总量规模适应驱动型,逐步向结构适应导向型为主,总量适应驱动型为辅的阶段转变。随着转型步伐的加快,客运需求结构快速变化,而客运供给结构并未随之调整,供需结构性矛盾愈演愈烈,严重影响了运力资源配置效率。解决客运供需结构矛盾的关键是理清交通与经济二者之间的关系,破解客运供需结构的演化机理,对客运供给结构进行优化。为此,本文将客运供给结构优化问题视为一个复杂系统的集成优化问题,综合运用经济学、交通规划和系统论等多学科交叉综合集成方法,分析和破解这一技术难题。论文主要研究内容如下： (1)基于协同进化算法的客运供给结构适应性评价方法研究评价客运供给结构与经济社会和生态环境发展的适应性是客运供给结构优化的前提。论文运用复杂适应系统理论和经济适应性理论,将客运供给结构适应性分解为外部适应性和内部功能适应性两部分,其中,外部适应性又包含经济发展适应性、社会进步适应性和生态环境适应性三个层次,并依照其定义构建了客运供给结构适应性评价指标体系,并运用多主体协同进化算法对客运供给结构的适应性进行动态评价。 (2)基于复杂适应系统理论的客运供需结构演化机理研究借鉴国内外经济发展阶段理论,对我国经济社会和交通运输发展阶段进行划分,结合旅客运输量和周转量时间序列数据分析了我国客运供给结构的演化历程及阶段性特征；应用复杂适应系统理论,将客运综合交通系统供需结构演化问题视为一个系统内部自组织,外部自适应的的复合过程,分析其演化的影响因素和演化机制,并将其抽象为数学符号构建了客运供需结构演化模型,同时,分析客运综合交通系统内部运输方式之间的竞合关系,构建运输方式竞争与合作关系模型。 (3)客运供给结构优化双层多目标规划模型研究在前文演化机理分析的基础上,分析客运供给结构优化的内涵和优化目标,并根据不同优化目标构建了相应的优化函数；应用双层规划思想,将双层规划方法与多目标规划方法相结合,构建基于上层供需均衡、客运服务均等化和资源节约环境友好,下层用户消费者剩余最大化的客运供给结构优化双层多目标规划模型,并设计了多目标遗传算法,通过实例对模型的有效性进行分析和验证。
[Abstract]:China has stepped into the period of economic transformation and reform, the development mode of transportation has been changed from the total scale of the initial stage of reform and opening up to the driving type, and gradually to the stage of the structural adaptation oriented type, supplemented by the total volume adaptation driven type. With the acceleration of the pace of transformation, the structure of passenger transport demand changes rapidly, but the structure of passenger transport supply has not been adjusted, and the structural contradiction between supply and demand is becoming more and more serious, which seriously affects the efficiency of transportation capacity resource allocation. The key to solve the contradiction between the structure of passenger transport supply and demand is to clarify the relationship between traffic and economy, to solve the evolution mechanism of the structure of passenger transport supply and demand, and to optimize the structure of passenger transport supply. Therefore, this paper regards the optimization of passenger transport supply structure as an integrated optimization problem of a complex system, and analyzes and solves this technical problem by using the multidisciplinary integrated integration methods such as economics, traffic planning and system theory. The main contents of this thesis are as follows: Research on adaptability Evaluation method of passenger Transport supply structure based on Co-Evolutionary algorithm To evaluate the adaptability of passenger transport supply structure to the development of economic society and ecological environment is the premise of optimizing passenger transport supply structure. Using the theory of complex adaptive system and economic adaptability, the paper decomposes the adaptability of passenger transport supply structure into two parts: external adaptability and internal functional adaptability, in which external adaptability also includes economic development adaptability. According to the definition of social progress adaptability and ecological environment adaptability, the evaluation index system of passenger transport supply structure adaptability is constructed, and the multi-agent co-evolution algorithm is used to dynamically evaluate the adaptability of passenger transport supply structure. Research on Evolution Mechanism of passenger Transport supply and demand structure based on complex Adaptive system Theory Based on the theory of stage of economic development at home and abroad, this paper divides the stages of economic, social and transportation development of our country, and analyzes the evolution course and stage characteristics of the structure of passenger transport supply in our country with the time series data of passenger transport volume and turnover. Based on the theory of complex adaptive system, the evolution of supply and demand structure of passenger transport integrated transportation system is regarded as a complex process of internal self-organization and external adaptation, and the influencing factors and evolution mechanism of the evolution are analyzed. The evolutionary model of passenger transport supply and demand structure is constructed by abstracting it as a mathematical symbol. At the same time, the competitive and cooperative relationship model of transportation mode is constructed by analyzing the competing relationship between internal modes of transportation in passenger transport integrated transportation system. Research on bilevel multi-objective programming model for passenger transport supply structure optimization Based on the analysis of the evolution mechanism, the connotation and objective of passenger transport supply structure optimization are analyzed, and the corresponding optimization functions are constructed according to different optimization objectives. Combining bilevel programming method with multi-objective programming method, based on upper level supply and demand equilibrium, equalization of passenger transport service and friendly environment of resource saving, The two-level multi-objective programming model of passenger transport supply structure with maximization of consumer surplus of lower users is optimized, and a multi-objective genetic algorithm is designed. The validity of the model is analyzed and verified by an example.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U116

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