高速公路交通量与分布规律预测

发布时间：2018-06-03 19:25

本文选题：交通量预测 + 交通分布规律预测　；参考：《河北工业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通量预测在公路建设项目研究工作具有非常重要的作用。鉴于当下我国高速公路的一大方向转入改造和拓宽,并成为日后比较主要的发展趋势之一。本文基于高速公路现有事实特征,分“宏观”和“微观”两个角度对高速公路交通量,主要是重载交通量进行了预测,为高速公路拓宽改造交通量预测工作寻找思路。根据高速公路交通特征和既有高速公路的影响,论文首先使用较为传统的四阶段预测分析理论对其进行了交通量的“宏观”方面的预测。由于车辆分布随机性较大,采用一般的理论模型难以达到精度要求,对于高速公路还未有过对车辆分车道车辆行车规律的预测,而对于重载车辆对于高速公路的影响远大于一般客车所产生的。所以本文从“微观”方面着手,分车道对重载车辆分布规律进行了预测。为此,首先提出采用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型对连续两周累计调查量分布系数进行计算,接着采取引用BP神经网络,运用MATLAB平台,经过多次修正,实现对灰色预测结果的残差进行修正,最后将两种方法结合的到最终结果,即为高速公路“六车道”的车道分布规律。通过对高速公路进行现场实际调查,得到交通总量分布,预测得出重载车辆分车道行驶规律,达到扩大通行能力的扩容目的同时能节约经济成本和工程量,有效帮助决策者宏观调控出行,为人们出行提供参考依据。同时可为今后高速公路改扩建工程和新建工程提供理论依据,分车道方法的改进有效的提高了预测精度,把相对误差有效减小。为日后相关交通预测以至更广范围的研究提供参考。
[Abstract]:Traffic volume prediction plays an important role in the research of highway construction projects. In view of the transformation and widening of expressway in China, it becomes one of the main developing trends in the future. Based on the existing characteristics of the expressway, this paper forecasts the expressway traffic volume, mainly heavy-haul traffic volume, from the two angles of "macro" and "micro", in order to find a way to forecast the traffic volume of expressway widening and reforming. According to the characteristics of expressway traffic and the influence of existing expressway, this paper first uses the traditional four-stage prediction theory to forecast the traffic volume in "macroscopic" aspect. Because of the randomness of the vehicle distribution, it is difficult to achieve the precision requirement by using the general theoretical model. The impact of heavy-haul vehicles on the highway is far greater than that of the general bus. Therefore, this paper predicts the distribution law of heavy-haul vehicles from the micro-view point of view. For this reason, this paper first puts forward to calculate the distribution coefficient of accumulative survey quantity for two consecutive weeks by using the GM1 / 1) model of grey system theory, and then uses BP neural network and MATLAB platform to calculate the distribution coefficient of the cumulative investigation quantity for two consecutive weeks, then it is revised many times by using the MATLAB platform. The residual error of the grey prediction result is corrected, and finally the two methods are combined to the final result, that is, the lane distribution law of the "six lanes" of the expressway. Through the on-the-spot investigation on the freeway, the distribution of the total traffic volume is obtained, and the driving rule of the heavy-haul vehicle is predicted. The expansion of the capacity of the heavy-haul vehicle can also save the economic cost and the engineering quantity. It can effectively help the decision makers to control travel macroscopically and provide reference basis for people to travel. At the same time, it can provide the theoretical basis for the future highway reconstruction and extension projects and new construction projects. The improvement of the driveway method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and reduce the relative error effectively. To provide a reference for future related traffic forecasts and more extensive research.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

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