基于ANNs的高速公路项目运营主体行为风险评价

发布时间：2018-06-06 02:50

本文选题：主体行为风险 + BP神经网络　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：现阶段,国家对采用政府与社会资本合作模式及社会资本全额投资建设的经营性高速公路,实行特许经营。收费高速公路经营管理已进入改革过渡的关键时期。随着高速公路项目运营环境的不断变化,高速公路运营公司所面临的经营风险越来越大,由高速公路项目运营的主体行为导致其可能发生的经济损失也随之增加,如何更客观、高效地对高速公路项目运营的主体行为风险进行系统综合评价,逐渐成为高速公路经营公司和学术界共同关注的热门问题。论文在系统分析国内外相关文献的基础上,结合高速公路运营管理、行为风险管理、系统综合评价等相关理论,以及国内高速公路项目运营主体行为风险管理的现状,深入对比分析了不同系统综合评价方法的特征、内容和优缺点,论证了基于人工神经网络的系统综合评价方法与高速公路项目运营主体行为风险评价的适用性与可行性。对高速公路运营主体行为风险的构成要素入手分析,从政府部门行为、运营公司内部行为、顾客行为以及市场竞争行为等四个方面,构建了高速公路运营主体行为风险综合评价指标体系,对各指标的内涵进行了详细阐述,给出了指标值相应的计算方法;提出了基于BP神经网络的高速公路运营行为风险评价理论体系,进行了XJ高速公路项目的实证分析;最后,采用灵敏度分析法对高速公路项目运营主体行为风险评价指标对评价结果的影响程度进行深入分析,以改进BP神经网络难以精确分析神经网络的各项性能指标的不足。论文所建立的高速公路运营主体行为风险评价的人工神经网络模型,具有很高的准确度,对所用高速公路项目运营的主体行为风险样本而言,得出的结果相对误差在10-3以下。BP神经网络对于解决高速公路运营主体行为风险评价等此类高度非线性问题具有独到的优势,可作为评测高速公路项目运营的主体行为风险的有效技术手段,为当前企业进行高速公路项目运营的主体行为风险管理提供有效的决策支持。
[Abstract]:At the present stage, the government has adopted the mode of cooperation between government and social capital and the full investment of social capital in the construction of the operating highway. The operation and management of toll highway has entered the key period of reform and transition. With the continuous change of the operating environment of the expressway project, the operating risk of the expressway operation company is more and more great. The economic loss that may occur caused by the main body behavior of the expressway project operation also increases, how to be more objective, The systematic and comprehensive evaluation of the main body behavior risk of expressway project operation has gradually become a hot issue that the expressway management company and academic circles pay attention to. Based on the systematic analysis of domestic and foreign literature, this paper combines the related theories of expressway operation management, behavior risk management, system comprehensive evaluation, and the current situation of domestic expressway project operation subject behavior risk management. The characteristics, contents, advantages and disadvantages of comprehensive evaluation methods of different systems are compared and analyzed, and the applicability and feasibility of comprehensive evaluation methods based on artificial neural network and behavioral risk assessment of highway project operators are demonstrated. Starting with the analysis of the constituent elements of the behavior risk of the main body of the expressway operation, this paper analyzes the behavior of the government, the internal behavior of the operating company, the customer behavior and the market competition behavior. This paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system of the behavior risk of the main body of the expressway operation, expounds the connotation of each index in detail, and gives the corresponding calculation method of the index value. This paper puts forward a theoretical system of highway operational behavior risk evaluation based on BP neural network, and carries out an empirical analysis of XJ expressway project. Finally, In order to improve the BP neural network, it is difficult to accurately analyze the shortcomings of each performance index of the BP neural network by using sensitivity analysis method to deeply analyze the influence degree of the risk evaluation index of the main body of the expressway project operation on the evaluation results. The artificial neural network model established in this paper has a high accuracy in evaluating the behavior risk of the expressway operator. For the sample of the subject behavior risk used in the expressway project operation, the artificial neural network (Ann) model is established in this paper. The relative error of the result is below 10-3. BP neural network has unique advantages in solving such highly nonlinear problems as risk evaluation of highway operators' behavior. It can be used as an effective technical means to evaluate the risk of main body behavior in expressway project operation, and provide effective decision support for the main body behavior risk management of expressway project operation in enterprises at present.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F542

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