珠江口水域船舶定线制后评估研究

发布时间：2018-06-16 21:11

本文选题：船舶定线制 + 交通流　；参考：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：船舶定线制代表着水上航行秩序的发展方向,是水上交通繁忙区域实施有效管理的重要手段,对减少和避免水上交通事故、保证船舶安全航行具有非常重要的意义。为保证定线制实施后的效果,对其进行后评估非常重要。为促进珠江口水域船舶定线制后评估和修订的顺利进行,同时对定线制后评估体系进行完善,本文通过调研、问卷调查等方法,对大濠水道和担杆水道定线制的船舶交通流进行了统计分析,分析了大濠水道5股交通流的数量、特点及走向以及担杆水道的6股交通流。本文在全面分析定线制影响因素的基础上,结合珠江口水域的航行环境特点,形成了针对珠江口水域船舶定线制的较全面的评价指标体系,共有19个指标。针对指标体系设计问卷调查,并对其实施后效果的问卷调查进行统计、分析、处理。用层次分析法确定各个指标在整个体系中所占的权重。在整理调查结果的基础上,利用李克特5点尺度法对问卷中不同的影响程度进行打分,将定性指标定量化,结合权重可以分别得出两个定线制安全性和有效性的得分,5个分值对应5个不同的安全性和有效性等级。之后,结合安全性和有效性各自的影响程度,可以计算出两个定线制的综合得分,得出定线制实施后效果的具体情况,对其有一个全面了解,同时为海事主管部门对船舶定线制进行后评估提供参考依据。从计算结果可以看出,大濠水道和担杆水道定线制安全性等级均为较安全,有效性等级均为有效果,总体较好。但是,为达到该定线制保障安全航行的最终目标,应进行进一步的修订与完善,以保证船舶的安全航行。
[Abstract]:Ship routing system represents the development direction of water navigation order and is an important means to implement effective management in areas with heavy water traffic. It is of great significance to reduce and avoid water traffic accidents and to ensure the safe navigation of ships. In order to ensure the effect after the implementation of the fixed line system, it is very important to carry out post-evaluation. In order to promote the evaluation and revision of the ship routing system in the Pearl River Estuary, and to improve the evaluation system after the alignment system, this paper, through investigation, questionnaire and other methods, This paper makes a statistical analysis of the vessel traffic flow in the Dachou waterway and the Dankou waterway, and analyzes the quantity, characteristics and trend of the 5 strands traffic flow in the Dagou waterway and the 6 strands traffic flow in the Dagou waterway. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of the alignment system and the characteristics of the navigation environment in the Pearl River Estuary, a more comprehensive evaluation index system for the ship routing system in the Pearl River Estuary has been formed. There are 19 indexes in all. The questionnaire is designed for the index system, and the effect of the questionnaire is analyzed and processed. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weight of each index in the whole system. On the basis of sorting out the results of the investigation, using the 5-point scale method of Likert to score the different degree of influence in the questionnaire, the qualitative indexes are quantified. Combined with weight, the scores of safety and effectiveness of two fixed systems can be obtained, and five scores correspond to five different grades of security and effectiveness. After that, combined with the degree of influence of security and effectiveness, we can calculate the comprehensive score of the two fixed line systems, and get the concrete situation of the effect after the implementation of the fixed line system, and have a comprehensive understanding of it. At the same time, it provides a reference for maritime authorities to carry out post-evaluation of ship routing system. From the calculation results, it can be seen that the safety grade of both the Dachou waterway and the Dachou waterway is relatively safe, the effectiveness grade is effective and the overall quality is good. However, in order to achieve the ultimate goal of ensuring safe navigation, further revision and perfection should be carried out to ensure the safe navigation of ships.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U697

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