损失规避环境下班轮运输超售与基于期权契约的协同决策

发布时间：2018-06-18 16:16

本文选题：风险中性 + 损失规避　；参考：《浙江海洋大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,世界金融危机对全球经济发展产生了巨大的影响。由于外向型经济的特征,国际航运业首当其冲受到了较大的冲击。世界贸易量的下降导致班轮舱位闲置、航运供应链效率低下。因此,提高航运供应链效率、增加航运企业收益、降低运营成本成为不少学者关注的重点。然而,当前针对航运供应链的研究大多是建立在决策者“经济人”基础上的,即采用期望收益最大化作为决策目标。自前景理论问世以来,决策者损失规避的特征得到了广泛的验证与应用。因此,本文基于损失规避和心理账户理论,以班轮运输企业和货运代理企业构成的二阶段供应链为研究对象,研究班轮超售决策和期权契约协同问题,通过优化超售决策模型和期权契约协同模型,降低市场不确定性所带来的风险,实现航运供应链上成员利益最大化。研究得到以下新结论:基于心理账户的建模方法,构建了损失规避集装箱班轮运输企业超售决策模型。不同于传统的基于期望收益最大的模型构建方式,将损失规避和心理账户引入超售决策模型。通过分别构建基于单一心理账户的超售决策模型和基于多重心理账户的超售决策模型,研究效用函数不同评价方式对超售决策的影响机制。理论研究表明基于心理账户的两种超售决策均存在唯一最优解满足班轮运输企业期望收益最大,且数值算例分析表明,基于多重心理账户班轮运输企业的超售水平更低,期望收益更大。基于多重心理账户的建模方式,以风险中性班轮运输企业和损失规避货运代理企业构成的二阶段供应链为研究对象,构建了同时给定单位舱位批发价和期权契约情况下货运代理企业双变量决策模型。研究表明存在舱位批发量与期权购买量的最优值满足损失规避货运代理企业期望效用最大,并通过敏感性分析揭示了最优解与参数设定的变化关系。基于多重心理账户的建模方式,研究了损失规避环境下四种班轮运输供应链期权契约,并分别提出了协同条件。首先,研究了当单位舱位批发价和期权契约同时存在情况下,班轮运输供应链期权契约的协同条件。接着,假设单位舱位批发价趋于无限大,研究了一般情况下的期权契约、允许紧急补订期权契约和考虑缺货损失期权契约协同班轮运输企业的条件。理论研究表明,以上四种期权契约均能实现供应链协同,且通过数值算例分析表明,供应链成员能任意分割供应链整体收益,并揭示了风险中性班轮运输企业和损失规避货运代理企业的期望收益随参数设置的变化趋势。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the world financial crisis has had a tremendous impact on global economic development. Due to the characteristics of export-oriented economy, the international shipping industry is the first to bear the brunt of the impact. The decline in world trade has led to idle liner shipping spaces and inefficient shipping supply chains. Therefore, to improve the efficiency of shipping supply chain, increase the revenue of shipping enterprises, reduce operating costs has become the focus of many scholars. However, most of the current research on shipping supply chain is based on the "economic man" of decision-makers, that is to say, the expected income maximization is adopted as the decision goal. Since the advent of foreground theory, the characteristics of loss aversion for decision makers have been widely verified and applied. Therefore, based on the theory of loss aversion and psychological account, this paper takes the two-stage supply chain composed of liner transportation enterprises and freight forwarders as the research object, and studies the coordination of liner overselling decisions and option contracts. By optimizing the oversell decision model and the option contract coordination model, the risks caused by market uncertainty are reduced, and the benefits of the members in the shipping supply chain are maximized. The following new conclusions are obtained: based on the psychological account modeling method, a loss aversion container liner shipping enterprise oversell decision model is constructed. Different from the traditional model based on the maximum expected income, loss aversion and psychological account are introduced into the oversell decision model. By constructing a single psychological account based oversell decision model and a multiple psychological account based overselling decision model, the influence mechanism of different evaluation methods of utility function on oversell decision was studied. Theoretical studies show that there is a unique optimal solution to meet the expected income of liner shipping companies based on psychological accounts, and numerical examples show that the overselling level of liner shipping companies based on multiple psychological accounts is lower. The expected returns are greater. Based on the modeling method of multiple psychological accounts, a two-stage supply chain consisting of risk-neutral liner shipping enterprises and loss-averse freight forwarders is taken as the research object. A bivariate decision model for freight forwarding agent is constructed under the condition of both wholesale price and option contract. The research shows that the optimal value of the wholesale volume of space and the purchase amount of option meets the expected utility of the freight forwarder to avoid losses. The relationship between the optimal solution and the parameter setting is revealed by sensitivity analysis. Based on the modeling method of multiple psychological accounts, four options contracts in liner transport supply chain under the environment of loss aversion are studied, and the cooperative conditions are proposed respectively. Firstly, when the wholesale price of unit space and the option contract exist simultaneously, the cooperative conditions of the option contract in the liner shipping supply chain are studied. Then, assuming that the wholesale price of unit space tends to be infinity, this paper studies the option contract under general circumstances, which allows for urgent replenishment of options contract and consideration of shortage of goods option contract to coordinate with the liner shipping company. The theoretical study shows that the above four options contracts can achieve supply chain coordination, and the numerical examples show that the supply chain members can arbitrarily divide the overall revenue of the supply chain. It also reveals the trend of the expected income of risk-neutral liner shipping enterprises and loss-averse freight forwarders with parameter setting.
【学位授予单位】：浙江海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F552

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