高速公路路基施工工程风险评价与管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 18:34

本文选题：高速公路 + 路基施工　；参考：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：高速公路路基工程是在复杂多变的自然环境、多方共同参与的情况下进行施工的,在整个道路施工中占用的时间长、难度大、附属设施多,导致在路基工程施工中潜藏的风险因素多,这些风险因素一旦“时机成熟”很可能会带来巨大的损失。做好路基工程风险管理工作,能有效地减少或避免工程风险的发生,确保工程计划的顺利实施,所以在路基工程施工中的风险管理是十分重要的。首先,本文结合公路路基施工的实际情况,将路基工程风险按风险的不同来源分为自然环境风险、施工风险、勘察设计风险和设备材料风险四大类。并对路基工程风险管理过程进行深入探讨,路基工程风险管理工作涵盖了风险识别、估计、评价、应对和监控等内容。其次,对路基工程风险评价进行了深入研究。基于高速公路路基施工过程的复杂性、不确定性,将层次分析法、模糊综合评价法和风险矩阵相结合,建立了多层次模糊风险矩阵评价模型。该评价模型利用改进的层次分析法确定各风险因素的相对权重,基于风险矩阵提出了风险值VaR的计算公式,确定风险等级。将各因素风险值和权重相乘求和得综合风险值。再次,根据风险值和各风险的性质制定合理应对措施,对所采取措施的实施效果,进行风险监控。风险监控是一个动态的、循环的、不间断的过程,本文提出了路基施工工程风险动态监控体系,并用风险直方图进行风险跟踪。最后,本文以贵州AZ高速公路为例,结合浸水路基失稳风险,阐述了路基工程风险管理过程。运用多层次模糊风险矩阵法,有效地识别和分析出路基失稳的风险因素,建立了风险评价指标体系,较好地对风险因素进行定性和定量分析评价,并根据评价结果提出了合理的风险应对措施。
[Abstract]:Expressway subgrade engineering is carried out under the condition of complex and changeable natural environment and joint participation of many parties. It occupies a long time in the whole road construction, is difficult, and has many ancillary facilities. There are many hidden risk factors in subgrade engineering construction. Once the time is ripe, these risk factors will probably bring huge losses. The risk management of subgrade engineering can effectively reduce or avoid the occurrence of engineering risk and ensure the smooth implementation of the project plan, so risk management in subgrade engineering construction is very important. Firstly, combined with the actual situation of highway subgrade construction, the risk of subgrade engineering is divided into four categories according to different sources of risk: natural environment risk, construction risk, survey and design risk and equipment material risk. The risk management of subgrade engineering includes risk identification, estimation, evaluation, response and monitoring. Secondly, the risk evaluation of subgrade engineering is studied. Based on the complexity and uncertainty of highway roadbed construction process, a multi-level fuzzy risk matrix evaluation model is established by combining AHP, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and risk matrix. The evaluation model uses the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the relative weight of each risk factor. Based on the risk matrix, the calculation formula of VaR is put forward, and the risk grade is determined. By multiplying the risk value and the weight of each factor, the comprehensive risk value can be obtained. Thirdly, according to the value of risk and the nature of each risk, reasonable measures are made to monitor the effect of the measures. Risk monitoring is a dynamic, cyclic and uninterrupted process. In this paper, a dynamic risk monitoring system for subgrade construction is proposed, and risk tracking is carried out with the risk histogram. Finally, taking Guizhou AZ Expressway as an example, the paper expounds the risk management process of embankment engineering risk combined with the risk of instability of flooded subgrade. The multi-level fuzzy risk matrix method is used to identify and analyze the risk factors of roadbed instability effectively, and a risk evaluation index system is established to evaluate the risk factors qualitatively and quantitatively. According to the evaluation results, reasonable risk countermeasures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U416.1

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