浓雾下高速公路追尾事故风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 07:26

本文选题：浓雾 + 高速公路　；参考：《清华大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：浓雾天气极易引发交通事故。为保障交通安全,中国高速公路在雾天往往频繁地采取封路措施,影响交通效率,进而造成经济损失。本文的目的是,研究高速公路上,浓雾下驾驶员的行为特征,并探索一种矫正浓雾下驾驶员缩短跟车距离行为的方案;以及通过建立浓雾风险模型和仿真,研究一种能控制浓雾条件下交通事故风险的管理措施。浓雾下驾驶行为的研究,采用驾驶模拟器实验获取驾驶速度、跟车距离等具体指标,结合问卷调查获取其心理特征的方法。结果表明:(1)无论相邻车道是否有车,浓雾下,被试的跟车距离都会缩短;(2)相邻车道车速越快,被试的平均自由行驶速度相对越快,跟车距离相对越短;(3)大部分被试没有意识到自己在浓雾下缩短了跟车距离;(4)基于智能交通系统方案的实施,使各个被试在自由行驶时的速度差异变小,而且正常天气和浓雾下的跟车距离变得没有显著差异。浓雾下高速公路事故风险控制措施的研究,主要通过建立考虑浓雾下驾驶行为特征的交通流元胞自动机模型,量化分析了浓雾下行车所带来的发生追尾交通事故的风险,以及为了降低这种风险所采取的间断放行措施。单车道上,在车辆的元胞占有率ρ0.5时,浓雾条件下的风险指标fa远远高于无雾条件。在采取间断放行措施后,同在浓雾条件下,fa的数量级从10-4降低为10-5。研究还得出了不同的放行数量N时,放行车队之间合理的放行间距ht以及每小时可以放行的最多车辆数Qmax。双车道上,在不同的低限速条件下,双车道间断放行措施的放行时间间隔存在不同的临界值(hmax)。当间断放行的时间间隔大于临界值时,间断放行措施可有效控制浓雾下的追尾事故风险。公路雾区变长或两车道交错放行车辆,在使临界值变大的同时,也会增大发生追尾交通事故的概率。可见,浓雾环境下,驾驶员的驾驶心理和行为,与正常天气有差异。其中,驾驶员缩短跟车距离的行为,会增加高速公路发生追尾事故的风险。高速公路采用间断放行措施时,可以通过设定合理的放行数量和放行时间间隔,有效控制事故风险,保证出行车辆的安全。本文研究结果可以为交通管理部门制定间断放行措施提供理论依据和参考。
[Abstract]:Heavy fog can easily lead to traffic accidents. In order to ensure traffic safety, highway closure measures are frequently adopted in foggy weather in China, which affect traffic efficiency and result in economic losses. The purpose of this paper is to study the behavior characteristics of drivers on the freeway and under dense fog, and to explore a scheme to correct the behavior of reducing the distance between drivers and vehicles under dense fog, and to establish the risk model and simulation of dense fog. This paper studies a kind of management measure which can control the traffic accident risk under the condition of dense fog. In the study of driving behavior under dense fog, the driving speed and distance from vehicle were obtained by driving simulator experiment, and the psychological characteristics were obtained by questionnaire survey. The results showed that: (1) under dense fog, the distance between the vehicle and the vehicle was shortened regardless of whether there was a vehicle in the adjacent driveway, and (2) the faster the speed of the adjacent lane, the faster the average free driving speed of the subjects. (3) most of the subjects did not realize that they had shortened the distance under the heavy fog; (4) based on the implementation of the Intelligent Transportation system (its) scheme, the speed difference of each subject in free travel became smaller. And there was no significant difference in distance between normal weather and fog. In this paper, the risk control measures of expressway accidents under dense fog are studied, and the risk of rear-end traffic accidents caused by driving under dense fog is analyzed quantitatively by establishing the cellular automata model of traffic flow which takes into account the characteristics of driving behavior under dense fog. And intermittent release measures to reduce this risk. On the single lane, the risk index fa under dense fog condition is much higher than that in free fog condition when the cell occupancy of vehicle is 蟻 0.5. After intermittent release, the order of Fa was reduced from 10-4 to 10-5 under the condition of dense fog. The reasonable clearance distance ht and the maximum number of vehicles per hour can be obtained when the number N is different. In two lanes, under different low speed limit conditions, there are different critical values (hmax). In the release interval of two lane intermittent release measures. When the interval of intermittent release is larger than the critical value, intermittent release measures can effectively control the risk of rear-end accidents under thick fog. When the road fog area becomes longer or two lanes stagger, the critical value will increase, and the probability of rear-end traffic accidents will also increase. It can be seen that the driver's driving psychology and behavior are different from normal weather in dense fog environment. Among them, the driver's behavior of shortening the distance between the vehicle and the vehicle will increase the risk of a rear-end accident on the highway. When the expressway adopts intermittent release measures, it can effectively control the accident risk and ensure the safety of vehicles by setting a reasonable number and interval of release time. The results of this paper can provide theoretical basis and reference for traffic management department to formulate intermittent release measures.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.3

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