集装箱班轮航线运力配置可靠性评价及调整策略研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 18:05

本文选题：集装箱班班轮航线 + 需求不确定　；参考：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：班轮运输是一种具有明显不确定性的运输方式,其中,集装箱运输需求的不确定性最为明显,时时处于波动状态。集装箱运输需求的波动可能会导致航线上配置的运力不足或过剩,降低了班轮公司的收益,甚至酿成公司信誉和形象受损、客户流失等严重后果。这种供给与需求的不平衡性实际上是班轮公司操作层面上的管理者每天都在面对的问题。目前对这一问题主要依靠管理人员经验处理,处理时存在很大的风险。同时,对现有文献进行分析发现,目前未发现类似研究。本文研究的目的是要提出评价集装箱班轮航线运力配置可靠性方法。首先运用可靠性理论,建立班轮航线运力配置方案的可靠性评价模型；然后构建以航次运营成本最小为目标的班轮航线运力配置调整模型；最后以A集装箱班轮公司经营的中国沿海内贸航线为例,对模型进行了验证,对航线运力配置的可靠性进行了分析提出了相应的调整措施。研究表明本研究提出的方法可以帮助班轮公司更好地规避集装箱运输需求波动风险,降低船舶运输成本、提高公司的服务质量、减少利润损失和提高班轮公司的服务水平。同时,也为班轮公司设计可靠的集装箱班轮航线运力配置方案提供理论支持。
[Abstract]:Liner shipping is a kind of transportation mode with obvious uncertainty, among which, the uncertainty of container transportation demand is the most obvious and fluctuates from time to time. The fluctuation of container transportation demand may lead to insufficient or excess transportation capacity on the route, reduce the profit of liner company, even damage the reputation and image of the company, customer loss and other serious consequences. This imbalance between supply and demand is actually a daily problem for liner operators. At present, this problem mainly depends on the management experience, and there are great risks when dealing with it. At the same time, the analysis of the existing literature found that no similar research has been found at present. The purpose of this paper is to put forward a method to evaluate the reliability of container liner route capacity allocation. Firstly, the reliability evaluation model of liner route capacity allocation scheme is established by using reliability theory, and then the model of liner route capacity allocation adjustment aiming at minimum voyage operation cost is constructed. Finally, taking the domestic trade routes of China's coastal areas operated by A Container liner Company as an example, the model is verified, and the reliability of route capacity allocation is analyzed and the corresponding adjustment measures are put forward. The research shows that the method proposed in this paper can help the liner company to avoid the risk of the fluctuation of container transportation demand, reduce the cost of shipping, improve the service quality, reduce the loss of profit and improve the service level of the liner company. At the same time, it also provides theoretical support for the design of reliable container liner shipping capacity allocation scheme.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U692.3

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