基于系统仿真的港口生态承载力动态评价模型

发布时间：2018-06-27 13:39

本文选题：生态型港口 + 生态承载力　；参考：《大连海事大学学报》2017年01期

【摘要】：针对目前港口生态承载力研究中过程机制和时间动态性考虑不足等问题,构建港口生态系统承载力复合评价模型,实现对港口生态承载力的动态评价和演变趋势预测.首先,应用系统动力学理论,从社会经济、资源和环境三方面建立港口生态承载力的系统动力学模型;其次,引入生态承载力综合评价法,提出港口生态承载力综合评价指标体系,建立港口生态承载力复合评价模型.在此基础上,以北方某港区为例,运用复合评价模型,对该港区生态承载状况进行现状分析和参数敏感性分析,识别港区生态承载状况的主要影响因子;设置自然发展方案和综合调控方案,动态模拟和评价2015—2030年港区生态承载状况的演变趋势.仿真结果表明,综合调控方案能有效解决港区生态超载的问题,显著提高港区生态承载水平.研究结果可为生态型港口建设及港口生态修复提供理论依据.
[Abstract]:In view of the shortage of process mechanism and time dynamic consideration in the research of port ecological carrying capacity, a composite evaluation model of port ecosystem carrying capacity is constructed to realize the dynamic evaluation and evolution trend prediction of port ecological carrying capacity. Firstly, the system dynamics theory is applied to establish port from three aspects of social economy, resources and environment. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation method of ecological carrying capacity is introduced, the comprehensive evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity of the port is introduced, and the composite evaluation model of port ecological carrying capacity is set up. On this basis, an example of a port area in the north is taken to analyze the status of ecological carrying capacity of the port area by using the compound evaluation model. And the parameter sensitivity analysis to identify the main influencing factors of the ecological carrying status of the port area, and set up the natural development plan and the comprehensive control scheme to dynamically simulate and evaluate the evolution trend of the ecological carrying status of the port area from 2015 to 2030. The simulation results show that the comprehensive control scheme can effectively solve the problem of ecological overload in the port area and improve the port area students significantly. The research results can provide theoretical basis for ecological port construction and port ecological restoration.
【作者单位】：大连理工大学建设工程学部;大连理工大学海岸和近海工程国家重点实验室;江苏省交通规划设计院股份有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279026)
【分类号】：U651

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