青藏高原工程走廊带多年冻土辨识及年平均地温预估模型

发布时间：2018-06-28 03:16

本文选题：道路工程 + 年平均地温预测　；参考：《中国公路学报》2015年12期

【摘要】：基于青藏高原多年冻土与外部环境间复杂耦合换热过程分析,遴选高程、纬度、考虑坡向与坡度影响的等效纬度和植被状况,及年平均地表温度等因素作为影响多年冻土年平均地温的主要因子,并利用高精度遥感数据,初步获取了青藏高原工程走廊带各因子的基本性状分布。利用青藏公路与青藏铁路沿线共计127个年平均地温实测数据,运用Logistic回归和线性回归方法分别建立了青藏高原工程走廊带多年冻土年平均地温预估模型和多年冻土与融区分布的Logistic概率辨识模型,最后运用该模型构建了青藏高原工程走廊带现阶段多年冻土区划,并分析了地温的空间分布规律。结果表明:多年冻土地温预测值与实际观测值拟合度较高,且该模型较为准确地判断了融区、高温冻土、低温冻土的分布现状,与实际情况吻合较好,模型预估结果较准确。
[Abstract]:Based on the analysis of the complex coupling heat transfer process between permafrost and external environment in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, the elevation and latitude are selected, and the equivalent latitudes and vegetation conditions of slope direction and slope are considered. The factors such as annual mean surface temperature and annual mean surface temperature are taken as the main factors affecting the annual mean ground temperature of permafrost, and the basic character distribution of each factor in the engineering corridor zone of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is preliminarily obtained by using high-precision remote sensing data. Using a total of 127 annual mean ground temperature data along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway and along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, Using logistic regression and linear regression methods, the prediction model of annual mean ground temperature of permafrost in the engineering corridor zone of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Logistic probability identification model of distribution of permafrost and thawing zone are established, respectively. Finally, the model is used to construct the permafrost zone in the engineering corridor zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at present, and the spatial distribution of the ground temperature is analyzed. The results show that the predicted value of permafrost soil temperature is fit to the actual observation value, and the model can accurately judge the distribution of thawing zone, high temperature frozen soil and low temperature frozen soil, which is in good agreement with the actual situation, and the prediction result of the model is more accurate.
【作者单位】：中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司;长安大学地质工程与测绘学院;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAG05B01;2014BAG05B03) 国家自然科学基金项目(51304028) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(310826130065)
【分类号】：U412.22

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