基于连续数据的公交运行可靠性分析

发布时间：2018-07-10 10:58

本文选题：公交运行可靠性 + 线路运行时间　；参考：《山东建筑大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：以往对公交运行可靠性特征研究中,大多数缺乏公交可靠性相关指标的连续数据,只能通过局部采集获得的数据对运行可靠性进行分析,得到的分析结果不能全面反映公交运行可靠性全面特征及深层规律。在高品质公交运行服务要求日益提高的今天,需要运用大样本的数据,对公交运行可靠性特征及规律进行深入、全面的分析研究。本文利用实时连续的公交AVL(Automatic Vehicle Location,自动车辆定位)数据从多个指标对常规公交运行可靠性进行分析。首先,根据原始公交AVL数据连续到达的特征,建立连续单个到达数据的分析流程,并特别研究了对班次进行精确划分的方法,为后文的研究提供了重要的基础数据支持。接着,从公交单个线路运行的层面,针对公交企业排班计划有重要意义的线路运行时间进行了深入分析,在总结线路运行时间全日特征的基础上,研究了基于划分时间窗内线路运行时间的数学分布特征,并进一步,针对时间窗内的线路运行时间准点率考核问题,运用线路运行时间的数学分布特征,对不同时间窗、不同考核标准的准点率进行了数学计算,并运用实际数据,对模型计算结果进行验证,研究结果对公交企业的科学考核与管理具有意义。另外,根据大量数据的分析,对不符合准点的班次(早点或晚点班次)的线路运行时间分布特征进行了分析,发现大量非准点班次线路运行时间,其与准点考核标准的差值分布呈集中趋势,分析表明,大量的非准点班次运行时间,可以有针对性的对其运行时间进行管理与控制,即可以达到公交企业准点考核的要求。基于以上分析,为了对线路运行时间有针对性的调整,从公交微区间(相邻站点间)运行时间层面进行分析,其目标就是寻找能对整个公交线路运行时间进行有效调整的空间区段(关键微区间)。在分析得出微区间运行时间特征的同时,制定了寻找关键微区间的一整套逻辑与方法,为快速有效的有针对性调整公交线路运行时间提供了理论及技术支持。最后,面向公交各个站点,对公交运行间隔演化特征进行研究,分析公交运行过程中在站点处的演化规律,提出了针对运行间隔演化的研究方法,通过相关数据分析得出了公交运行间隔的特征,同时对关键微区间的分析结论以及间隔演化特征的分析结论进行研究,得出了两者之间存在相互影响相互作用的结论,即当其中一方的稳定性受到影响而产生不稳定的波动时,这个波动会传递给另一方。为进一步研究公交运行可靠性提供了一定的理论依据。
[Abstract]:In the past researches on the reliability characteristics of public transport, most of them lack the continuous data of the related indexes of public transport reliability, so they can only analyze the operation reliability through the data collected locally. The results of the analysis can not fully reflect the comprehensive characteristics and deep rules of bus operation reliability. With the increasing requirement of high quality public transport service, it is necessary to analyze and study the reliability characteristics and rules of public transportation by using large sample data. In this paper, Automatic vehicle location (Automatic vehicle location) data are used to analyze the reliability of conventional public transport from several indexes. Firstly, according to the characteristics of continuous arrival of original AVL data, the analysis flow of continuous single arrival data is established, and the method of accurate division of frequency is studied, which provides an important basic data support for the later research. Then, from the level of single bus line operation, the paper makes a deep analysis of the line running time which is of great significance to the bus enterprise scheduling plan, and summarizes the characteristics of the line running time all day. This paper studies the mathematical distribution characteristics of line running time based on dividing time window, and further, aiming at the checking problem of line running time punctuality rate in time window, applies the mathematical distribution characteristic of line running time to different time windows. The mathematical calculation of the punctuality rate of different assessment standards is carried out, and the results of the model calculation are verified by using the actual data. The research results are of significance to the scientific assessment and management of public transport enterprises. In addition, according to the analysis of a large number of data, the distribution characteristics of the running time of the line which does not accord with the schedule (early or late) are analyzed, and it is found that a large number of non-punctual shifts run time. The distribution of the difference between it and the standard of on-time assessment is concentrated. The analysis shows that the running time of a large number of non-punctual shifts can be managed and controlled pertinently, that is to say, it can meet the requirements of bus enterprise's punctuality assessment. Based on the above analysis, in order to adjust the running time of the line, from the bus micro-interval (adjacent stations) running time level analysis, Its goal is to find the space section (key microinterval) that can adjust the running time of the whole bus line effectively. At the same time, a whole set of logic and method to find the key micro-interval is established, which provides theoretical and technical support for the rapid and effective adjustment of bus line running time. Finally, facing to each bus station, this paper studies the evolution characteristics of bus running interval, analyzes the evolution law of bus operation at the station, and puts forward a research method for the evolution of running interval. Through the analysis of relevant data, the characteristics of bus running interval are obtained. At the same time, the analysis conclusion of the key micro-interval and the analysis conclusion of the evolution characteristics of the interval are studied, and the conclusion that there is interaction between the two is obtained. That is, when the stability of one side is affected and an unstable fluctuation occurs, the fluctuation is transmitted to the other side. It provides a theoretical basis for further study of bus operation reliability.
【学位授予单位】：山东建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491.17

【相似文献】