基于灰色系统理论的高速公路价值分析

发布时间：2018-07-18 07:09

【摘要】：为量化和预测高速公路价值,测定高速公路价值的主要影响因素,确保高速公路保值增值,采用灰色预测方法建立灰色预测模型进行高速公路价值的预测,并通过残差检验以验证模型的精准度;采用灰色关联度分析方法,寻找价值影响主要因素,确定各影响因素间的联动关系,并以福建高速作为实证分析对象,对所建模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明:以0.642 0的残差值通过模型精度检验,福建高速未来3年的价值为470 218万元;福建高速价值的净现金流与养护业务成本、运营收入、征收业务成本、土地租金、路政支出、监控业务成本、路产折旧等相关因素的关联度依次为0.98,0.94,0.90,0.90,0.88,0.87,0.83;在各影响因素之间,按照取高原则和不重复原则,运营收入与征收业务成本关联系数为0.96,关联度较高;路产折旧与监控业务成本关联系数为0.94,关联度较高;路政支出与监控业务关联系数为0.99,关联度较高;该构建模型可用于高速公路价值预测,灰色关联度分析可作为探寻价值影响主因、测定影响因素间联动关系的有效方法,其结果可为高速公路实施价值管理提供依据。
[Abstract]:In order to quantify and predict the value of expressway, determine the main influencing factors of the value of expressway, and ensure the maintenance and increase of value of expressway, a grey forecasting model is established to predict the value of expressway. And through the residual test to verify the accuracy of the model; grey correlation analysis method to find the main factors of value, determine the linkage between the factors, and Fokienia high speed as an empirical analysis object, Empirical analysis of the model is carried out. The results show that with the residual value of 0.642 0, the value of FokienExpressway in the next 3 years is 4.70218 billion yuan, and the net cash flow and maintenance business cost, operating income, levying business cost, land rent of Fokien-based high speed value are 4.70218 billion yuan in the next three years. The correlation degree of the related factors such as road administration expenditure, monitoring business cost, road production depreciation and so on is 0.98 / 0. 94 / 0.90 / 0.90 / 0.80 / 0.87 / 0.83. Among the influencing factors, the correlation coefficient between operating income and levying business cost is 0.96, which is higher than that of other influencing factors. The correlation coefficient between road production depreciation and monitoring business cost is 0.94, the correlation degree is high, the correlation coefficient between highway expenditure and monitoring business is 0.99, the correlation degree is high, the model can be used to forecast the value of expressway. The grey correlation analysis can be used as an effective method to find out the main cause of value influence and to determine the linkage relationship between the influencing factors. The results can provide the basis for the implementation of value management in expressway.
【作者单位】：长安大学经济与管理学院;陕西交通职业技术学院经济管理学院;
【基金】：陕西省交通运输厅科技项目(10-08R)
【分类号】：U491

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