基于非集计模型的居民出行方式选择影响因素研究
发布时间：2018-08-07 14:15
【摘要】：最近几年,中国的城市化速度越来越快的发展,城市居民出行困难的问题也越来越明显。不同的出行个体选取不同的出行方法形成了城市的交通方式布局。交通方式选择是交通规划和政策制定的一个重要的和不可缺少的组成部分。目前,在城市社会经济发展水平下,研究居民在交通出行时对不同交通方式的大概利用情况,客观有效地预测出交通区分方式,可以为科学合理的城市交通方式结构优化提供决策依据。最近几年,中国的主要城市都开始认识到,掌握居民出行规律对城市交通规划、组织管理和控制是非常重要的,因此也进行了相应地居民出行调查,以便更好地研究影响居民出行方式选择的因素。本文通过对城市交通情况的实际调查及相关规划资料的收集整理,分别就常规公交、快速公交、出租车和地铁这四大公共交通方式及非公交方式现状进行调查,同时对城市居民交通方式的主要特性及其影响因素进行描述。针对当前出行方式选择行为模型很少考虑出行潜变量和潜变量对选择结果产生影响的现状,本文通过结构方程模型刻画潜变量与其测量变量之间的关系,并因此计算出潜变量的适配值；而后依据效用最大化理论,改进以往二项Logit模型的效用函数,建立包括潜变量作用的整合模型。综合运用SPSS、Smart PLS等专业软件对模型求解过程进行解释。在确定选择模型后,文章针对城市居民出行方式选择主要的影响因素进行区分并予以说明。根据构建的模型,以南京市为例,对影响居民交通出行方式选择的因素进行问卷调查。首先对问卷数据进行统计,再用Smart PLS对问卷潜变量数据进行处理,得到潜变量的适配值。最后用SPSS计算Logit模型,对各潜变量的适配值以及对具有作用的显变量值的参数进行标定并检验,比较分析了对城市居民出行方式选择主要的影响因素。在对交通出行相关变量进行分析的基础上,最后给出了改善居民交通出行的相关措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's urbanization is growing faster and faster, and the problem of urban residents' travel difficulties is becoming more and more obvious. Different travel individuals choose different travel methods to form the urban traffic mode layout. The choice of transportation mode is an important and indispensable component of traffic planning and policy making. At present, at the level of urban social and economic development, the general situation of residents' utilization of different traffic modes during transportation travel is studied, and the traffic differentiation modes are predicted objectively and effectively. It can provide decision basis for scientific and reasonable urban traffic mode structure optimization. In recent years, major cities in China have begun to realize that it is very important for urban traffic planning, organization, management and control to master the rules of residents' travel, so they have also conducted a corresponding survey of residents' travel. In order to better study the factors that affect the choice of residents' travel mode. Through the actual investigation of the urban traffic situation and the collection and arrangement of the related planning data, this paper investigates the current situation of the four major public transport modes, namely, conventional public transport, bus rapid transit, taxi and subway, and the non-public transport modes respectively. At the same time, the main characteristics of urban residents' traffic mode and its influencing factors are described. In view of the fact that the current travel mode selection behavior model seldom considers the effect of trip latent variables and latent variables on the selection results, this paper describes the relationship between latent variables and their measurement variables through the structural equation model. According to the utility maximization theory, the utility function of the previous binomial Logit model is improved, and the integration model including the latent variable function is established. The process of solving the model is explained by SPSS Smart PLS and other professional software. After determining the selection model, the paper distinguishes and explains the main factors that affect the choice of urban residents' travel mode. According to the model, taking Nanjing as an example, a questionnaire survey was conducted on the factors affecting the choice of residents' travel mode. First, the questionnaire data are statistically analyzed, and then the latent variable data are processed by Smart PLS to get the suitable value of the latent variable. Finally, the Logit model is calculated by SPSS, and the parameters of each latent variable and the obvious variable are calibrated and tested, and the main factors affecting the choice of urban residents' trip mode are compared and analyzed. Based on the analysis of the related variables of traffic trip, the related measures to improve the transportation travel of residents are given in the end.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491
本文编号：2170286
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's urbanization is growing faster and faster, and the problem of urban residents' travel difficulties is becoming more and more obvious. Different travel individuals choose different travel methods to form the urban traffic mode layout. The choice of transportation mode is an important and indispensable component of traffic planning and policy making. At present, at the level of urban social and economic development, the general situation of residents' utilization of different traffic modes during transportation travel is studied, and the traffic differentiation modes are predicted objectively and effectively. It can provide decision basis for scientific and reasonable urban traffic mode structure optimization. In recent years, major cities in China have begun to realize that it is very important for urban traffic planning, organization, management and control to master the rules of residents' travel, so they have also conducted a corresponding survey of residents' travel. In order to better study the factors that affect the choice of residents' travel mode. Through the actual investigation of the urban traffic situation and the collection and arrangement of the related planning data, this paper investigates the current situation of the four major public transport modes, namely, conventional public transport, bus rapid transit, taxi and subway, and the non-public transport modes respectively. At the same time, the main characteristics of urban residents' traffic mode and its influencing factors are described. In view of the fact that the current travel mode selection behavior model seldom considers the effect of trip latent variables and latent variables on the selection results, this paper describes the relationship between latent variables and their measurement variables through the structural equation model. According to the utility maximization theory, the utility function of the previous binomial Logit model is improved, and the integration model including the latent variable function is established. The process of solving the model is explained by SPSS Smart PLS and other professional software. After determining the selection model, the paper distinguishes and explains the main factors that affect the choice of urban residents' travel mode. According to the model, taking Nanjing as an example, a questionnaire survey was conducted on the factors affecting the choice of residents' travel mode. First, the questionnaire data are statistically analyzed, and then the latent variable data are processed by Smart PLS to get the suitable value of the latent variable. Finally, the Logit model is calculated by SPSS, and the parameters of each latent variable and the obvious variable are calibrated and tested, and the main factors affecting the choice of urban residents' trip mode are compared and analyzed. Based on the analysis of the related variables of traffic trip, the related measures to improve the transportation travel of residents are given in the end.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491
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