基于运行速度的公路线形安全性综合评价

发布时间：2018-08-27 18:49

【摘要】：近些年来,我国由于公路交通事故造成的人身伤亡与财产损失居高不下,公路交通安全形势不容乐观,对公路交通安全问题的深入研究刻不容缓。本文通过分析公路交通安全的影响因素,选择运行速度指标对公路线形安全性进行研究。本文首先对常用的几种速度指标进行简要的介绍,对运行速度的影响因素进行分析,并对基于运行速度进行公路线形安全性评价的必要性和可行性作出论证。然后考虑到在运行速度影响因素中的环境因素当中,气候条件会对运行速度产生一定的影响,且不良天气中常见的冰雪天气会对行车安全造成严重的威胁,论证了天气条件研究的必要性。接下来,从路面、驾驶员、车辆性能三个方面分析了冰雪天气条件对车辆实际运行速度的影响。然后从正常天气条件和冰雪天气条件两个方面展开研究,得到了正常天气条件和冰雪天气条件两种天气条件下的四种典型路段上的大货车实际运行速度预测模型。接下来明确公路线形安全性综合评价指标的选取原则和范围,在此基础上从基于运行速度的协调性、舒适性、视觉性以及基于线形组合的协调性四个方面选取本文的公路线形安全性综合评价指标,并给出各指标的计算公式以及评价标准,得到由四大指标、十二小指标组成的公路线形安全性综合评价指标体系。随后对常用的综合评价方法进行分析比选,明确本文使用以模糊综合评价法为基础的集成综合评价法。在评价指标权重方面,使用经聚类分析法改进后得到的聚类层次分析法用以确定主观权重,使用熵权法确定客观权重,并组合得到组合权重。在评价指标的隶属度方面,使用梯形模糊分布法计算评价指标隶属度。在此基础上,建立了对公路线形安全性进行评价的多层次聚类模糊综合评价模型。最后,结合延蒲高速的设计文件,应用本文第三章建立的考虑天气条件的大货车实际运行速度预测模型对延蒲高速待评价路段进行正向大货车运行速度的预测,得到大货车正向的运行速度预测值。接下来应用第四章建立的公路线形安全性评价指标体系,根据运行速度预测值进行评价指标值的计算。在此基础上,应用多层次聚类模糊综合评价模型计算本文评价指标的权重、隶属度并进行模糊合成和综合评价,得出评价结论,并针对相应安全性不良路段提出改善措施和建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the casualties and property losses caused by road traffic accidents in China remain high, and the situation of highway traffic safety is not optimistic, so it is urgent to study the problem of highway traffic safety deeply. In this paper, the influence factors of highway traffic safety are analyzed, and the safety of highway alignment is studied by selecting the running speed index. In this paper, several commonly used speed indexes are introduced briefly, the influencing factors of running speed are analyzed, and the necessity and feasibility of highway alignment safety evaluation based on running speed are demonstrated. And then considering that among the environmental factors that affect the speed of the operation, the climatic conditions will have a certain impact on the speed of the operation, and that the ice and snow weather that is common in bad weather will pose a serious threat to the safety of the traffic. The necessity of studying weather conditions is demonstrated. Then, the influence of snow and ice weather conditions on the actual speed of vehicle is analyzed from three aspects: road surface, driver and vehicle performance. Then from the normal weather conditions and ice and snow weather conditions two aspects of the study, the normal weather conditions and snow weather conditions under the two weather conditions of four typical sections of the actual operating speed prediction model of freight cars. Then the selection principle and scope of comprehensive evaluation index of highway alignment safety are made clear, and on this basis, based on the coordination and comfort of running speed, This paper selects the comprehensive evaluation index of highway alignment safety from four aspects of vision and coordination based on linear combination, and gives the calculation formula and evaluation standard of each index, and obtains four indexes. The comprehensive evaluation index system of highway alignment safety is composed of 12 small indexes. Then the common comprehensive evaluation method is analyzed and compared, and the integrated comprehensive evaluation method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is made clear in this paper. In the aspect of evaluating index weight, the improved clustering AHP method is used to determine the subjective weight, the entropy weight method is used to determine the objective weight, and the combined weight is obtained. In terms of membership degree of evaluation index, trapezoidal fuzzy distribution method is used to calculate membership degree of evaluation index. On this basis, a multi-level clustering fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established to evaluate the safety of highway alignment. Finally, combined with the design document of Yenpu Expressway, the forecast model of actual running speed of large freight car considering weather condition is established in the third chapter of this paper, which is used to predict the running speed of forward freight car on the section of Yenpu Expressway to be evaluated. The forward running speed prediction value of large freight car is obtained. Then, the evaluation index system of highway alignment safety is established in chapter 4, and the evaluation index value is calculated according to the forecast value of running speed. On this basis, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of multi-level clustering is applied to calculate the weight, membership degree, fuzzy synthesis and comprehensive evaluation of the evaluation index in this paper, and the evaluation conclusions are obtained. At the same time, the improvement measures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U412.3

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