路径行程时间及其可靠性研究
发布时间：2018-10-08 17:03
【摘要】：随着社会经济发展,生活节奏逐渐加快,出行者对于准确估计路径行程时间及其波动性的要求越来越高。同样,合理分析路径行程时间及其可靠性在实际的交通控制管理过程中体现的作用也愈发明显。本文首先针对城市道路网络中路径行程时间的预测进行了分析,对影响路径行程时间的因素进行研究后,从无事故状态下行程时间和随机事故影响下行驶延误两个角度对路径行程时间进行建模计算。根据无事故影响下城市交通网络中间断流的交通特性,文中通过对流量函数进行修正和分状态对参数进行标定,提出了分状态BPR修正模型来进行城市交通网络中的路径行程时间预测。对城市交通网络中交通事故发生规律及影响进行分析后,使用概率论方法计算延误的期望值。由此得到路径行程时间的计算模型。在实际调查的基础上,建立仿真环境对所建模型精确度进行了检验。在总结路径行程时间可靠性研究的基础上,本文明确了路径行程时间可靠性的概念,建立路径行程时间可靠性评价指标体系,提出了各项评价指标定量化计算模型。最后通过建立算例对各项指标计算方法和模型的合理性进行了验证,证明了行程时间可靠性指标体系可以对各条路径行程时间可靠性变化情况进行分析,为出行者出行和道路管理提供全方面决策辅助信息。
[Abstract]:With the development of social economy, the rhythm of life is quickening gradually, and the demand for accurate estimation of travel time and its fluctuation is becoming higher and higher. Similarly, the rational analysis of path travel time and its reliability plays an important role in the actual traffic control management. In this paper, the prediction of route travel time in urban road network is analyzed, and the factors influencing the path travel time are studied. The path travel time is modeled and calculated from two angles: the travel time under the condition of no accident and the travel delay under the influence of random accident. According to the traffic characteristics of the middle cut off of urban traffic network without accident, the parameters are calibrated by modifying the flow function and dividing the state. In this paper, a hierarchical BPR correction model is proposed to predict the path travel time in urban transportation networks. After analyzing the regularity and influence of traffic accidents in urban traffic network, the expected value of delay is calculated by probability theory. The calculation model of path travel time is obtained. Based on the actual investigation, the simulation environment is established to test the accuracy of the model. On the basis of summarizing the research of path travel time reliability, this paper defines the concept of path travel time reliability, establishes the evaluation index system of path travel time reliability, and puts forward the quantitative calculation model of each evaluation index. Finally, the rationality of each index calculation method and model is verified by establishing an example, and it is proved that the reliability index system of travel time can analyze the reliability change of each path. To provide all aspects of decision support information for travelers and road management.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491
本文编号：2257563
[Abstract]:With the development of social economy, the rhythm of life is quickening gradually, and the demand for accurate estimation of travel time and its fluctuation is becoming higher and higher. Similarly, the rational analysis of path travel time and its reliability plays an important role in the actual traffic control management. In this paper, the prediction of route travel time in urban road network is analyzed, and the factors influencing the path travel time are studied. The path travel time is modeled and calculated from two angles: the travel time under the condition of no accident and the travel delay under the influence of random accident. According to the traffic characteristics of the middle cut off of urban traffic network without accident, the parameters are calibrated by modifying the flow function and dividing the state. In this paper, a hierarchical BPR correction model is proposed to predict the path travel time in urban transportation networks. After analyzing the regularity and influence of traffic accidents in urban traffic network, the expected value of delay is calculated by probability theory. The calculation model of path travel time is obtained. Based on the actual investigation, the simulation environment is established to test the accuracy of the model. On the basis of summarizing the research of path travel time reliability, this paper defines the concept of path travel time reliability, establishes the evaluation index system of path travel time reliability, and puts forward the quantitative calculation model of each evaluation index. Finally, the rationality of each index calculation method and model is verified by establishing an example, and it is proved that the reliability index system of travel time can analyze the reliability change of each path. To provide all aspects of decision support information for travelers and road management.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491
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