IPCC_A1B情景下京杭运河21世纪中叶水资源条件时空演化

发布时间：2018-10-11 19:42

【摘要】：随着京杭大运河的申遗成功,关于京杭运河的全线"活化"及复航成为关注的重点,其关键是京杭运河沿线的水资源的调配和利用.本文采用IPCC的A1B情景,模拟了中国当代(20世纪后期,1981-2000年20年均值表示)和未来时期(21世纪中叶,2041-2060年20年均值表示)的降水量时空分布及演化特征,分析了京杭运河所经流域的水资源时空演化特征.发现京杭运河自南向北所经流域,长江流域水资源量会有所下降,淮河流域、黄河流域及海河流域的水资源量将略有上升.由此可以看出,京杭运河的全线复航关键是在尽早利用淮河流域及以南的水资源北上"济运",实现黄河以北运河的复航,同时在现有南水北调工程背景下尽可能恢复"南旺分水枢纽工程"及"北五湖"的水柜功能,实现京杭运河世界文化遗产的"活态"保存.
[Abstract]:With the successful application of Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal, the "activation" and reinstatement of the whole line of the Canal become the focus of attention, and the key is the allocation and utilization of water resources along the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal. In this paper, the A1B scenario of IPCC is used to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of precipitation in contemporary China (the mean value of 20 years in 1981-2000) and in the future period (in the middle of the 21st century, 2041 to 2060 years). The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of water resources in the watersheds of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal are analyzed. It is found that the amount of water resources in the Yangtze River basin will decrease, and the water resources in the Huaihe River Basin, the Yellow River Basin and the Haihe River Basin will increase slightly from the north to the south of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal. From this, we can see that the key to the restoration of the entire line of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal is to make use of the Huaihe River Basin and the water resources in the south to "transport" to the north of the Yellow River as soon as possible, so as to realize the restoration of the canal north of the Yellow River At the same time, under the background of the existing South-to-North Water transfer Project, the functions of the "Nanwang Water Distribution Hub Project" and the "North five Lakes" water tank can be restored as far as possible, so as to realize the "living state" preservation of the World Cultural Heritage of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学城市与城镇更新规划设计研究中心;华东师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(111-14106) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB955804)
【分类号】：U61;TV213

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