基于经验贝叶斯法的高速公路事故黑点识别研究
发布时间：2018-10-12 19:09
【摘要】：随着高速公路网络的不断建设,高速公路里程的不断增加,高速公路交通事故的危害也日益引起人们的重视。根据高速公路交通事故发生的特点,研究降低高速公路交通事故危害的方法,识别出占道路里程较少,却集中较大比例交通事故的事故黑点,并采取相应的改善措施,降低事故黑点的危害,有着重要的意义。论文在综合分析国内外高速公路事故黑点识别方法的基础上,介绍了高速公路事故黑点识别理论,并详细的分析了几种典型的事故黑点识别方法的技术指标、优缺点以及适用条件,并将其分为直接识别法和间接识别法。为避免传统道路单元划分的缺陷,本文结合道路线形指标和交通事故在高速公路上的聚集状态,提出了将道路线形单元法与动态聚类分析法相结合的道路单元二次划分法,可以使危险路段充分的暴露出来。在道路单元二次划分的基础上,本文建立了基于经验贝叶斯法的高速公路事故黑点识别法。首先介绍了经验贝叶斯方法,并借鉴HSM(Highway Safety Manual)中高速公路事故预测模型的建模思路,建立高速公路事故预测模型,并将其作为先验分布;由先验分布结合经验贝叶斯法安全估计可得贝叶斯后验估计;以后验估计值作为能真正反映高速公路安全状况的数据,代入质量控制法可得黑点识别阈值;根据安全可提高空间的概念提出路段安全系数作为事故黑点诊治排序指标,并根据路段安全系数对事故黑点诊治进行排序。最后结合西安--宝鸡的双向八车道高速公路相关数据,运用本文提出的方法,对西宝高速公路进行案例分析,识别出西宝高速事故黑点,并对事故黑点的诊治提供了顺序,为高速公路管理部门提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:With the continuous construction of highway network and the increase of highway mileage, people pay more and more attention to the harm of highway traffic accidents. According to the characteristics of expressway traffic accidents, the methods of reducing the harm of expressway traffic accidents are studied, and the accident black spots, which occupy less road mileage but concentrate on a large proportion of traffic accidents, are identified, and corresponding improvement measures are taken. It is of great significance to reduce the harm of accident black spot. Based on the comprehensive analysis of blackspot identification methods at home and abroad, this paper introduces the theory of expressway accident blackspot identification, and analyzes in detail the technical indexes of several typical accident blackspot identification methods. The advantages and disadvantages as well as the applicable conditions are divided into direct identification method and indirect recognition method. In order to avoid the defects of the traditional road unit division, this paper presents a method of road unit quadratic partition which combines the road linear unit method with the dynamic clustering analysis method, combined with the road alignment index and the aggregation state of the traffic accident on the highway. Can make the dangerous section fully exposed. Based on the quadratic partition of road units, an empirical Bayesian method for identification of expressway accident blackspots is established. First, the empirical Bayes method is introduced, and the model of expressway accident prediction is established by using the modeling idea of expressway accident prediction model in HSM (Highway Safety Manual) as a priori distribution. The posterior Bayesian estimation can be obtained by combining the prior distribution with the empirical Bayesian method, and the latter can be used as the data that can truly reflect the safety situation of the highway, and the black spot recognition threshold can be obtained by using the quality control method. According to the concept that safety can improve space, the safety factor of road section is put forward as the ranking index of accident blackspot diagnosis and treatment, and the accident blackspot diagnosis and treatment is sorted according to the safety factor of road section. Finally, combining with the related data of Xi'an-Baoji two-way eight lane expressway, using the method proposed in this paper, the case analysis of Xibao expressway is carried out, and the black spot of Xibao high speed accident is identified, and the order of diagnosis and treatment of accident black spot is provided. Provide decision basis for highway management department.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.31
本文编号：2267276
[Abstract]:With the continuous construction of highway network and the increase of highway mileage, people pay more and more attention to the harm of highway traffic accidents. According to the characteristics of expressway traffic accidents, the methods of reducing the harm of expressway traffic accidents are studied, and the accident black spots, which occupy less road mileage but concentrate on a large proportion of traffic accidents, are identified, and corresponding improvement measures are taken. It is of great significance to reduce the harm of accident black spot. Based on the comprehensive analysis of blackspot identification methods at home and abroad, this paper introduces the theory of expressway accident blackspot identification, and analyzes in detail the technical indexes of several typical accident blackspot identification methods. The advantages and disadvantages as well as the applicable conditions are divided into direct identification method and indirect recognition method. In order to avoid the defects of the traditional road unit division, this paper presents a method of road unit quadratic partition which combines the road linear unit method with the dynamic clustering analysis method, combined with the road alignment index and the aggregation state of the traffic accident on the highway. Can make the dangerous section fully exposed. Based on the quadratic partition of road units, an empirical Bayesian method for identification of expressway accident blackspots is established. First, the empirical Bayes method is introduced, and the model of expressway accident prediction is established by using the modeling idea of expressway accident prediction model in HSM (Highway Safety Manual) as a priori distribution. The posterior Bayesian estimation can be obtained by combining the prior distribution with the empirical Bayesian method, and the latter can be used as the data that can truly reflect the safety situation of the highway, and the black spot recognition threshold can be obtained by using the quality control method. According to the concept that safety can improve space, the safety factor of road section is put forward as the ranking index of accident blackspot diagnosis and treatment, and the accident blackspot diagnosis and treatment is sorted according to the safety factor of road section. Finally, combining with the related data of Xi'an-Baoji two-way eight lane expressway, using the method proposed in this paper, the case analysis of Xibao expressway is carried out, and the black spot of Xibao high speed accident is identified, and the order of diagnosis and treatment of accident black spot is provided. Provide decision basis for highway management department.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.31
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