城市公交运行数据时空预测算法及可靠性分析
发布时间：2018-10-14 10:15
【摘要】：为了提高公交系统服务可靠性,济南市公交公司已经花费了大量的物力和财力来实施一些最先进的运输和通信技术。在公交系统服务可靠性方面的进步不仅会给公交系统的运营者带来收益,而且会极大的方便乘客的出行。公交车准时到站率的提高不仅会减少公交车到站时间的波动,从而节省乘客的等待时间；而且能够让公交车运营者在制定时刻表时减少额外的缓冲时间,这样就可以减少不必要的出车行为,更有效的地利用公交车资源。公交系统服务可靠性的提高会减少前后公交车同时到达某一站点后者前后两辆公交车到达某一站点出现较大的时间间隔现象的产生,同时也能减少乘客在站台的等待时间,保证公交车资源能被充分利用。对于公交车服务的提供者和乘客来说,公交服务不可靠带来的首要问题就是大量不必要的财政支出。然而,中国的城市路网系统非常复杂,公交车的运行受到其他私家车,自行车和出租车的影响。为了更好的方便人们的出行,市面上出现了很多APP软件,比如说微步、无线城市掌上公交、彩虹公交等软件,然而这些软件的开发商没有深入分析公交车的运行数据,没有分析公交车可靠性,所以这些软件提供的数据存在偏差,导致了服务质量的下降。调查显示,公交车运行时间可靠性已经成为增强城市公交吸引力的重要手段,它不仅左右着人们的出行选择,还影响公交公司制定调度表方面的决策。然而,由于受到天气、道路状况、时间、信号灯绿信比等因素的影响,目前公交车运行时间可靠性还不尽如人意,影响了人们的出行安排。公交车服务可靠性模型的结果对公交车服务计划,制定时刻表和运行控制有很多启示。因为公交车延迟变化直接影响乘客的等待时间,以上结论对乘客也有很重要的作用。本文基于济南市公交车的GPS数据,研究了济南市公交车运行时间可靠性情况。主要实现了四个研究目标。第一：探究每个因素的影响,是如何影响的；第二：研究影响是否显著(P值),影响程度的大小；第三：根据公交车运行时间可靠性模型得出政策性的结论；第四：对公交车运行时间可靠性做出一定的预测。本文首先给出了公交车运行时间可靠性的定义：运行时间的标准差率(CV)=标准差／均值,然后采集了三条特征各异的线路在27天的运行数据,最后通过预测算法得出各个影响因素的影响权值与显著性,得出政策性的结论。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the reliability of public transport system, Jinan bus Company has spent a lot of material and financial resources to implement some of the most advanced transportation and communication technology. The progress in the reliability of public transport system will not only bring benefits to the operators, but also greatly facilitate the travel of passengers. The increase in on-time bus arrival will not only reduce the fluctuation of bus arrival time, thus saving passengers waiting time, but also allow bus operators to reduce the extra buffer time when they set their timetables. This can reduce unnecessary driving behavior, more effective use of bus resources. The improvement of bus service reliability will reduce the occurrence of large time interval between two buses arriving at a certain station at the same time, and can also reduce the waiting time of passengers at the platform. To ensure that bus resources can be fully utilized. For bus service providers and passengers, the most important problem caused by unreliable bus service is a large amount of unnecessary financial expenditure. However, China's urban road network system is very complex, bus operation is affected by other private cars, bicycles and taxis. In order to make it easier for people to travel, there are many APP software on the market, such as microstep, wireless city palmtop bus, rainbow bus, etc. However, the developers of these software have not analyzed the running data of buses in depth. There is no analysis of bus reliability, so the data provided by the software are biased, leading to a decline in the quality of service. The investigation shows that the reliability of bus running time has become an important means to enhance the attractiveness of urban public transport. It not only affects people's travel choices, but also affects the decision of bus companies to make scheduling tables. However, due to the influence of weather, road condition, time, green signal ratio and so on, the reliability of bus running time is not satisfactory, which affects people's travel arrangements. The results of the bus service reliability model have a lot of implications for bus service planning, scheduling and operation control. Because the change of bus delay directly affects the waiting time of passengers, the above conclusions also play an important role in passengers. Based on the GPS data of Jinan bus, the reliability of bus running time is studied in this paper. Four main research objectives have been achieved. The first is to explore the influence of each factor, the second is to study whether the influence is significant (P value), and the third is to draw the policy conclusion according to the reliability model of bus running time. Fourth, the reliability of bus running time to make a certain prediction. This paper first gives the definition of bus running time reliability: the standard deviation rate of running time (CV) = standard deviation / mean, and then collects the operation data of three different lines in 27 days. Finally, the influence weight and significance of each influencing factor are obtained by the prediction algorithm, and the policy conclusion is drawn.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17
本文编号：2270151
[Abstract]:In order to improve the reliability of public transport system, Jinan bus Company has spent a lot of material and financial resources to implement some of the most advanced transportation and communication technology. The progress in the reliability of public transport system will not only bring benefits to the operators, but also greatly facilitate the travel of passengers. The increase in on-time bus arrival will not only reduce the fluctuation of bus arrival time, thus saving passengers waiting time, but also allow bus operators to reduce the extra buffer time when they set their timetables. This can reduce unnecessary driving behavior, more effective use of bus resources. The improvement of bus service reliability will reduce the occurrence of large time interval between two buses arriving at a certain station at the same time, and can also reduce the waiting time of passengers at the platform. To ensure that bus resources can be fully utilized. For bus service providers and passengers, the most important problem caused by unreliable bus service is a large amount of unnecessary financial expenditure. However, China's urban road network system is very complex, bus operation is affected by other private cars, bicycles and taxis. In order to make it easier for people to travel, there are many APP software on the market, such as microstep, wireless city palmtop bus, rainbow bus, etc. However, the developers of these software have not analyzed the running data of buses in depth. There is no analysis of bus reliability, so the data provided by the software are biased, leading to a decline in the quality of service. The investigation shows that the reliability of bus running time has become an important means to enhance the attractiveness of urban public transport. It not only affects people's travel choices, but also affects the decision of bus companies to make scheduling tables. However, due to the influence of weather, road condition, time, green signal ratio and so on, the reliability of bus running time is not satisfactory, which affects people's travel arrangements. The results of the bus service reliability model have a lot of implications for bus service planning, scheduling and operation control. Because the change of bus delay directly affects the waiting time of passengers, the above conclusions also play an important role in passengers. Based on the GPS data of Jinan bus, the reliability of bus running time is studied in this paper. Four main research objectives have been achieved. The first is to explore the influence of each factor, the second is to study whether the influence is significant (P value), and the third is to draw the policy conclusion according to the reliability model of bus running time. Fourth, the reliability of bus running time to make a certain prediction. This paper first gives the definition of bus running time reliability: the standard deviation rate of running time (CV) = standard deviation / mean, and then collects the operation data of three different lines in 27 days. Finally, the influence weight and significance of each influencing factor are obtained by the prediction algorithm, and the policy conclusion is drawn.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17
【共引文献】
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 孙奎利;天津市绿道系统规划研究[D];天津大学;2012年
，本文编号：2270151
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