地方干线公路BT项目建设风险分析及规避研究

发布时间：2018-10-29 16:58

【摘要】：伴随着我国经济增速进入低谷期后,国内经济增速开始回落,在这种经济增速明显走下坡路的大背景之下,各级政府部门为稳定当前经济局面,使出浑身解数来保经济增长,其中一个极为重要而又非常有效的手段即是通过扩大投资来带动经济增长。而我们各级政府部门最喜好的扩大投资方式为基础设施建设投资,这从全国各地的基建上马项目的火热程度中可窥见一斑。但同时,由于各级政府掌控的资金捉襟见肘,使得从大层面上来看,耗资巨大的基建项目一旦上马,往往又会使得各级政府倍感资金压力。在这种背景下,使得BT(Build-Transfer,即建设—移交)模式,越来越多的成为各级政府建设基础设施项目的首选方案。但是BT模式作为一种全新的融资模式,其在运用过程中会出现一些风险问题,如何规避处理好BT模式中的风险问题成为BT模式能否被广泛运用的关键。本文以伊春市铁金干线公路建设为依托工程,进行地方干线公路BT项目建设风险分析及规避研究。通过检索国内外的文献资料,对BT模式的风险规避理论、委托代理框架下的风险分析理论进行归纳总结。形成全文理论研究的依据。进行了地方干线公路BT项目建设风险分析,确定了BT项目建设定义,BT项目建设的运作模式,BT模式建设存在的问题;对地方干线公路BT项目建设风险来源进行分析,分别分析了项目招标风险、项目管理风险、融资环境风险、政府信用风险、不可抗力风险;对地方干线公路BT项目建设风险特征进行分析,总结了风险的阶段性、风险的复杂性、风险的主体性;最后对地方干线公路BT项目建设风险评估方法进行简要介绍。进行了地方干线公路项目建设风险规避机制分析,进行了地方干线公路BT项目建设风险规避策略研究,进行了制定地方干线公路BT项目建设风险规避机制,并分别给出了业主机制、监理机制、激励机制、风险预警机制。最后,本文针对伊春市铁金干线公路BT项目建设过程进行分析总结,对该项目的运作模式进行分析,总结出该项目的风险类型并进行相应的评估,并给出相应的风险规避机制,本论文的研究成果可以为BT模式在地方干线公路项目建设中运用提供借鉴和指导意义。
[Abstract]:With China's economic growth rate entering a trough period, the domestic economic growth rate has begun to decline. Against the background of this obvious downward trend of economic growth, government departments at all levels are doing everything possible to maintain economic growth in order to stabilize the current economic situation. One of the most important and effective means is to boost economic growth by expanding investment. Our preferred way of expanding investment at all levels of government is infrastructure investment, which can be seen in the intensity of infrastructure projects across the country. But at the same time, because of the shortage of funds at all levels of government, the large scale of the cost of infrastructure projects once launched, often make governments at all levels of financial pressure. In this context, BT (Build-Transfer,) model is becoming the first choice of infrastructure construction projects at all levels of government. However, as a new financing mode, the BT model will have some risk problems in the process of its application. How to avoid the risk in the BT model has become the key to widely use the BT model. Based on the project of Yichun iron and gold trunk highway, this paper analyzes the risk of local trunk road BT project and studies on avoiding it. This paper summarizes the risk aversion theory of BT model and the risk analysis theory under the framework of principal-agent by searching the literature data at home and abroad. To form the theoretical basis of the full text. This paper analyzes the risk of BT project construction of local trunk road, and determines the definition of BT project construction, the operation mode of BT project construction, and the problems existing in BT mode construction. This paper analyzes the risk sources of local trunk road BT project construction, analyzes the project bidding risk, project management risk, financing environment risk, government credit risk, force majeure risk; This paper analyzes the risk characteristics of the local trunk highway BT project, summarizes the stages of the risk, the complexity of the risk, the subjectivity of the risk, and finally briefly introduces the risk assessment method of the local trunk highway BT project construction. This paper analyzes the risk aversion mechanism of the local trunk highway project construction, studies the risk aversion strategy of the local trunk highway BT project construction, and formulates the risk aversion mechanism of the local trunk highway BT project construction. The owner mechanism, supervision mechanism, incentive mechanism and risk warning mechanism are given respectively. Finally, this paper analyzes and summarizes the construction process of Yichun iron and gold trunk highway BT project, analyzes the operation mode of the project, summarizes the risk types of the project and carries on the corresponding evaluation, and gives the corresponding risk aversion mechanism. The research results of this paper can provide reference and guidance for the application of BT model in the construction of local trunk highway projects.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U415.1

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