闭合通勤链中基于博弈的小汽车拥有者出行方式选择研究
发布时间：2018-11-04 15:24
【摘要】：从个体出行方式选择决策机理入手,以演化博弈理论为基础,基于出行链构建了考虑回程因素的闭环通勤出行选择决策模型.模型中考虑了个体对去程与回程两次出行感知程度的两类影响因素,模拟了回程过程的3种不同情境,研究回程加入不同活动情境下对整个闭合通勤链出行选择决策的影响,并将考虑回程因素的决策结果与仅考虑单次出行的结果进行对比,证明了考虑回程因素的必要性.最后,以北京市典型通勤OD为例,对模型进行实证分析.结果表明,仅考虑去程时,小汽车方式优势凸显;而考虑回程因素时,回程过程中加入的不同活动将影响个体闭环出行链出行选择决策结果,小汽车将不再成为人们出行的最优选择,定制公交的优势不容小视.
[Abstract]:Based on the evolutionary game theory, the closed-loop commuting decision model considering the factors of return trip is constructed based on the decision mechanism of individual travel mode selection. In the model, we consider two kinds of factors which affect the perceived degree of travel, simulate three different situations of the return trip process, and study the influence of the return trip on the trip choice decision of the whole closed commuting chain under different activity situations. By comparing the decision result with the result of considering only one trip, it is proved that it is necessary to consider the factor of return trip. Finally, taking Beijing typical commuting OD as an example, the model is empirically analyzed. The results show that the advantage of car mode is obvious when only considering the way of going. When considering the factors of return trip, different activities added in the return journey process will affect the decision result of individual closed-loop trip chain trip choice, the car will no longer be the best choice for people to travel, and the advantages of customizing public transportation should not be overlooked.
【作者单位】： 北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室;北京交通大学交通运输学院;中国交通通信信息中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71390332,71621001-3) 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB725406)~~
【分类号】：U491
[Abstract]:Based on the evolutionary game theory, the closed-loop commuting decision model considering the factors of return trip is constructed based on the decision mechanism of individual travel mode selection. In the model, we consider two kinds of factors which affect the perceived degree of travel, simulate three different situations of the return trip process, and study the influence of the return trip on the trip choice decision of the whole closed commuting chain under different activity situations. By comparing the decision result with the result of considering only one trip, it is proved that it is necessary to consider the factor of return trip. Finally, taking Beijing typical commuting OD as an example, the model is empirically analyzed. The results show that the advantage of car mode is obvious when only considering the way of going. When considering the factors of return trip, different activities added in the return journey process will affect the decision result of individual closed-loop trip chain trip choice, the car will no longer be the best choice for people to travel, and the advantages of customizing public transportation should not be overlooked.
【作者单位】： 北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室;北京交通大学交通运输学院;中国交通通信信息中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71390332,71621001-3) 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB725406)~~
【分类号】：U491
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