城市居民公交出行的时间价值及可靠性价值研究

发布时间：2018-11-17 08:31

【摘要】：公共交通的出行时间及出行时间可靠性是影响公交系统品质和吸引力的重要指标,进而会影响到公交优先政策的成败。国内城市的公交运营都受到政府的补贴,公交票价相对较低,其经济性优势相对明显,对于出行者来讲,公交出行的时间成本及可靠性成本对公交选择行为的影响至关重要,是探讨其对出行行为影响机理的理论基础,因此,本文对公交出行的时间价值及可靠性价值进行深入研究。首先,以公交出行整个过程作为研究对象,包括两端步行时间、等车时间、车内运行时间和换乘时间,构建了公交出行各阶段时间权重及价值模型。基于公交各阶段时耗测试意愿调查问卷,分别对广义公交群体和不同用户群体视角下的公交出行各阶段时间权重及价值进行标定分析,结果显示,车外时间对出行选择行为的影响大于车内时间；两端步行时间、等车时间、车内运行时间和换乘时间的时间权重分别为1.6、1.9、1.0和3.0。其次,基于不同出行时间下公共交通两端步行时间容忍值的调查,研究公共交通两端步行时空阈值分布,并通过考虑公共交通两端步行时空阈值的影响因素建立离散选择模型,深入研究个体差异性以及出行总耗时对两端步行时空阈值的影响。最后,运用早到时间、早到概率、迟到时间、迟到概率四个因素直观呈现出行时间波动性的基础上,采用正交试验原理设计实施了公共交通出行时间可靠性意愿调查,分别运用均值-方差模型和调度模型评估出行时间可靠性价值并进行对比分析,并基于调度模型研究不同用户群体、不同收入群体、不同学历群体出行者对出行时间波动性的异质性差异。
[Abstract]:Public transport travel time and travel time reliability is an important indicator of the quality and attractiveness of public transport system, which will affect the success or failure of bus priority policy. The public transport operation in domestic cities is subsidized by the government, the bus ticket price is relatively low, and its economic advantages are relatively obvious. For travelers, the time cost and reliability cost of public transport travel is very important to the choice of public transport. It is the theoretical basis of discussing the mechanism of its influence on travel behavior. Therefore, this paper deeply studies the time value and reliability value of public transport trip. Firstly, taking the whole process of bus trip as the research object, including walking time at both ends, waiting time, in-vehicle running time and transfer time, the weight and value model of each stage of public transport travel is constructed. Based on the questionnaire of time consuming will in each stage of public transport, the time weight and value of each stage of public transport travel are calibrated and analyzed from the perspective of generalized public transport group and different user groups, and the results show that. The influence of out-of-vehicle time on travel choice behavior is greater than that on in-vehicle time. The time weights of walking time, waiting time, in-vehicle running time and transfer time are 1.6g 1.9g 1.0 and 3.0 respectively. Secondly, based on the investigation of the tolerance of walking time at both ends of public transport, the distribution of space-time threshold of public transport is studied, and the discrete selection model is established by considering the factors that affect the threshold of walking time and space at both ends of public transport. The effects of individual differences and travel time on the threshold of walking time and space were studied. Finally, on the basis of four factors, such as early arrival time, early arrival probability, late time and lateness probability, the travel time fluctuation is intuitively presented, and the reliability will of public transportation travel time is designed and implemented by using the principle of orthogonal test. We use mean-variance model and scheduling model to evaluate the reliability value of travel time and analyze the reliability of travel time. Based on the scheduling model, we study different user groups and different income groups. The heterogeneity of travel time volatility among travelers with different educational background.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

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本文编号：2337144