城市公共自行车租赁点借还需求预测与分析

发布时间：2018-11-23 08:50

【摘要】：随着经济的不断发展,机动车数量的不断增长,交通拥堵问题、能源问题、环境问题日益突出,自行车这种“绿色”交通工具,重新得到人们的重视。公共自行车作为一种创新型自行车交通模式,被推广于各大城市。建立公共自行车系统,鼓励更多的出行者采用非机动车的出行方式,是提高城市交通运行效率以减少环境污染的有效途径。本文首先对公共自行车的系统进行了分析,包括公共自行车发展历程,公共自行车的使用条件及出行模式,公共自行车在城市交通系统中的功能定位(作为城市公交系统的辅助与补充,与城市轨道换乘)。其次以西安市为例,对居民的出行特征及骑行环境进行了分析,并根据租赁点周边的用地属性(居住用地、商业用地、行政办公用地)对站点进行分类。对每类站点中部分站点公共自行车的使用情况进行了数据统计,并对数据进行了深入的分析,计算出各站点各个时段借还系数,高峰小时借还系数。然后从使用时间,个体属性,出行特征三方面对西安公共自行车的使用特征进行了总结分析。最后根据前面对西安公共自行车使用特征的分析,提出了影响公共自行车借还需求的因素,并按照层次分析法对影响因素进行分析筛选,即月收入,出行距离,出行耗时,用地属性这个因素对借还需求影响相对较大。然后利用随机效用理论建立公共自行车需求预测模型,并利用该模型对西安市居住点、商业点、行政办公点的公共自行车借还需求量进行预测。同时利用公共自行车的周转率及停车桩周转率对公共自行车租赁点自行车及停车桩数量进行规模测算。根据现有数据对公共自行车站点的选址及布局提出了一些思路,利用现在的布局思路对已建成的部分租赁点进行了分析,并判断其合理性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of economy, the increasing number of motor vehicles, traffic congestion, energy problems, environmental problems are increasingly prominent, bicycle, such as "green" means of transport, people pay more attention to. As an innovative bicycle traffic mode, public bicycle has been extended to major cities. It is an effective way to improve the efficiency of urban traffic and reduce environmental pollution by establishing public bicycle system and encouraging more travelers to adopt non-motor vehicle mode. First of all, this paper analyzes the system of public bicycle, including the development of public bicycle, the use conditions and travel mode of public bicycle. The function orientation of public bicycle in urban transportation system. Secondly, taking Xi'an as an example, this paper analyzes the travel characteristics and riding environment of residents, and classifies the sites according to the land properties (residential land, commercial land, administrative office land) around the lease point. This paper makes statistics on the usage of public bicycle in some stations of each kind of stations, and analyzes the data in depth, and calculates the borrowing and returning coefficient of each station in each period, and the coefficient of borrowing and returning in peak hour. Then the usage characteristics of Xi'an public bicycle are summarized and analyzed from three aspects: using time, individual attributes and travel characteristics. Finally, according to the analysis of the characteristics of Xi'an public bicycle, the paper puts forward the factors that affect the demand of public bicycle loan, and analyzes the factors according to AHP, that is, monthly income, travel distance, travel time, etc. Land use attribute this factor to borrow to return demand influence relatively big. Then the demand forecasting model of public bicycle is established by using stochastic utility theory, and the demand of public bicycle loan and return in Xi'an residential, commercial and administrative offices is forecasted by the model. At the same time, the scale of the bicycle and the number of the parking pile at the rental point of the public bicycle are calculated by using the turnover rate of the public bicycle and the turnover rate of the parking pile. Based on the existing data, this paper puts forward some ideas on the location and layout of the public bicycle station, analyzes some leasing points that have been built by using the present layout ideas, and judges its rationality.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.225

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