城市公共交通分担率的动态研究

发布时间：2018-12-12 14:27

【摘要】：随着城市规模日益膨胀,人口与社会活动的大规模集聚使得日常交通量大幅度上升,道路日趋拥挤,城市交通问题成为限制城市发展的一个重要因素。公共交通作为城市人群出行的主要方式,其高效的运载能力和科学的路网规划能够有效缓解城市的拥堵。当面对人口密集、资源能源相对匮乏等问题,公交车作为路面公共交通的主体,应当充分发挥其城市运载能力,提高其分担率来缓解交通压力。分担率是客流在两种或两种以上交通方式或路线之间的分布概率,是各个交通方式或路线所占有市场份额的表示。以往的研究是关注如何发展城市轨道交通基础建设,或者是发展地下公共交通等去缓解交通拥堵,很多文献都是从公交车和轨道交通(火车、地铁等)着手来研究人群出行的选择意愿,这时候却忽视了路面各类公共交通本身也会存在一个相互影响作用的状况。本文以路面公共交通中的公交车、出租车和三轮摩托为研究对象,从另一个角度去分析路面交通中公共交通工具之间分担率的相互转移,最终总结如何完善公交公司运营水平的手段,使其能够发挥最大的运载能力来增加公交车的分担率。本文从实际调查出发,设计调查问卷来得到各类公共交通工具质量属性之间的相关重要程度和质量属性值,以此来通过Logit模型来建立马尔科夫转移矩阵,通过构建每一步的动态转移矩阵和研究多种情况下最终稳定状态下的概率来分析公共交通工具质量属性对交通工具分担率的影响,可以为公交集团解决公交车分担率低的问题,提供在质量属性上如何完善的参考和决策。本文的研究重点如下：首先通过对国外文献中重点提到的可靠性、发车频率、费用、速度、舒适性和便捷性等质量属性的研究,结合相关解释和一些具体通过该项质量属性解决交通问题的实际案例来归纳出本文所应用的三类公共交通工具质量属性：可靠性、舒适性和费用。其次在对成都市公共交通情况作了简单概述的基础上,通过调查问卷,以求能够获取比较接近实际情况的数据。在此基础上近似估算处理得出三种交通工具的质量属性值和两两比较得出各质量属性之间的相关重要程度,即权重。最后运用Logit模型建立公共交通出行方式离散选择模型,并在此基础上构建马尔科夫转移矩阵。为了能够动态研究转移矩阵得到的三种交通工具分担率的转移趋势,本研究构建了每一步转移后的分担率与质量属性之间的函数关系,以此分析当公共交通工具的质量属性在同等衰减和递增(表示为运营者的“不作为”和“改善”)的水平下,哪一项质量属性对公交车分担率的影响最大,哪一项质量属性对提高公交车分担率更为有效。同时结合城市中出租车不断涨价的实际影响来分析其对公交车分担率的作用以及公交车应该从自身做出哪些完善。
[Abstract]:With the increasing expansion of the city scale, the mass agglomeration of population and social activities makes the daily traffic volume rise by a large margin, and the roads become more and more crowded. The urban traffic problem becomes an important factor that restricts the development of the city. Public transport is the main way for urban people to travel, its efficient transportation capacity and scientific road network planning can effectively alleviate urban congestion. Faced with the problems of dense population and relative shortage of resources and energy, the bus, as the main body of road public transportation, should give full play to its urban transportation capacity and improve its sharing rate to alleviate traffic pressure. The sharing rate is the distribution probability of passenger flow between two or more traffic modes or routes, and the representation of the market share of each traffic mode or route. Previous studies have focused on how to develop urban rail transit infrastructure, or develop underground public transport to alleviate traffic congestion, many of the literature is from buses and rail transit (train, Subway and so on) to study the choice of people to travel, but at this time ignored the road public transport itself will also have a mutual influence on the situation. In this paper, the bus, taxi and three-wheeled motorcycle in the road public transportation are taken as the research object, and the transfer of the public transport share rate between the public transport vehicles in the road transportation is analyzed from another angle. Finally, it summarizes how to improve the operation level of the bus company, so that it can maximize the transportation capacity to increase the bus share rate. Based on the actual investigation, this paper designs a questionnaire to obtain the correlation importance and quality attribute value among the quality attributes of various kinds of public transport vehicles, so as to establish the Markov transfer matrix through the Logit model. By constructing the dynamic transfer matrix of each step and studying the probability of the final stable state under various circumstances to analyze the influence of the quality attributes of public transport vehicle on the share rate of public transport, we can solve the problem of low bus share rate for the public transport group. Provide reference and decision on how to improve quality attributes. The research focus of this paper is as follows: firstly, the quality attributes of reliability, departure frequency, cost, speed, comfort and convenience mentioned in foreign literature are studied. Combined with the relevant explanations and some practical cases of solving the traffic problem through the quality attribute, three kinds of public transport quality attributes used in this paper are summarized: reliability, comfort and cost. Secondly, on the basis of a brief overview of the public transport situation in Chengdu, the paper makes a questionnaire to obtain the data which is close to the actual situation. On the basis of this, the quality attribute value of three kinds of vehicles is estimated and compared with that of pairwise. The correlation between each quality attribute is obtained, that is, the weight. Finally, the discrete choice model of public transportation travel mode is established by using Logit model, and the Markov transition matrix is constructed on the basis of this model. In order to dynamically study the transfer trend of the transfer rate of three kinds of vehicles obtained from the transfer matrix, the functional relationship between the transfer rate and the quality attributes of each step is constructed. When the quality attribute of a public transport vehicle is at the same level of attenuation and increase (expressed as "inaction" and "improvement" of the operator), which quality attribute has the greatest impact on the bus share rate, Which quality attribute is more effective in increasing bus share rate. At the same time, combined with the actual impact of taxi price increase in cities, this paper analyzes the role of taxi share rate and how the bus should be improved from its own.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U12

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