城市公共自行车服务系统成本效益研究

发布时间：2018-12-13 10:54

【摘要】：公共自行车服务系统在全球的发展呈现“遍地开花”之势,尤其在国内的发展速度更为惊人,这主要是因为我国多采用政府主导模式,由政府投入高额的资金来建设系统,同时给予运营商高额的补贴维持经营,在社会上也产生了“天价”公共自行车的舆论。基于此背景,本文研究了公共自行车全寿命周期的成本与效益。首先,利用问卷调查获得的出行者出行链数据建立了二项Logit选择模型,模型结果表明影响居民选择包括公共自行车出行链的行为主要有五个因素,同时出行者对公共自行车的方便性更敏感、要求更高,通过提高公共自行车站点的覆盖率能够有效提高公共自行车的使用量。其次,在样本数据受限的情况下,文章选择灰色GM(1,1)及其改进模型用于预测了公共自行车租借量,并利用MATLAB实现模型的计算,通过对模型的检验发现改进的GM(1,1)模型中长期预测效果更好。再次,文章分析了公共自行车服务系统的全寿命周期的组成,并给出了具有可操作性的易于计算的全寿命周期成本现值的估算模型以及运营阶段效益的量化模型。最后,论文计算了西安市公共自行车服务系统的全寿命周期的成本与效益,计算结果表明西安市公共自行车服务系统寿命周期内的效益要远远高于成本,证实了公共自行车服务系统的价值所在。
[Abstract]:The development of public bicycle service system in the world shows the trend of "blooming everywhere", especially in China, the speed of development is even more astonishing. This is mainly because our country mostly adopts the government-led mode, and the government invests a high amount of money to build the system. At the same time, high subsidies to operators to maintain the operation, in the community has also produced "sky-high" public bicycle public opinion. Based on this background, this paper studies the cost and benefit of the whole life cycle of public bicycle. First of all, two Logit selection models are established by using the data obtained from the questionnaire survey. The results show that there are five main factors that affect the behavior of residents' choice, including the public bicycle travel chain. At the same time, the travelers are more sensitive to the convenience of the public bicycle, higher requirements, by increasing the coverage of public bicycle stations can effectively improve the use of public bicycles. Secondly, in the case of limited sample data, the grey GM (1 / 1) and its improved model are selected to predict the amount of public bicycle rental, and the calculation of the model is realized by using MATLAB. It is found that the improved GM (1K1) model is more effective in medium and long term prediction by checking the model. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the composition of the whole life cycle of the public bicycle service system, and gives an operational model of estimating the present value of the cost of the whole life cycle and a quantitative model of the benefit of the operation phase. Finally, the paper calculates the cost and benefit of the whole life cycle of the public bicycle service system in Xi'an, and the result shows that the benefit in the life cycle of the public bicycle service system in Xi'an is much higher than the cost. Proved the value of public bicycle service system.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.225

【共引文献】