考虑停靠服务的公交到车率分布预测

发布时间：2018-12-20 21:49

【摘要】：为了均衡干线上协调控制和公交优先信号之间的矛盾,对干线上关键断面的公交到车率进行了分析和预测。根据干线的道路条件,界定干线上若干个关键断面;统计仿真检测数据,按较小的时间间隔汇总和统计不同周期内的车辆到达率,绘制关键断面的公交到车率分布图。分析公交车进站停靠的过程,建立进站时间、停留时间的修正公式,运行蒙特卡罗数值仿真方法计算延后时间;在确定延后时间累积频率曲线基础上,通过计算平移后的面积得到间隔的延后转移比例,构建用于预测的转移矩阵;用上游断面的到车率乘以转移矩阵预测得到下游断面的到车率。结果表明:蒙特卡罗数值仿真方法是可行的,公交到车率分布的预测相对误差较小,说明基于转移矩阵的到车率预测方法是有效的。
[Abstract]:In order to balance the contradiction between coordinated control and bus priority signal on the trunk line, the bus arrival rate of the key section on the trunk line is analyzed and forecasted. According to the road conditions of the trunk line, several key sections on the trunk line are defined, and the bus arrival rate distribution chart of the key section is drawn according to the small time interval and the statistics of the arrival rate of the vehicles in different cycles. This paper analyzes the process of bus stopping, establishes the modified formula of inbound time and residence time, and calculates the delay time by using Monte Carlo numerical simulation method. On the basis of determining the cumulative frequency curve of delay time, the transfer matrix for prediction is constructed by calculating the area after translation to obtain the ratio of delay transfer. The arrival rate of the downstream section is predicted by multiplying the arrival rate of the upstream section by the transfer matrix. The results show that the Monte Carlo numerical simulation method is feasible and the relative error of bus arrival rate prediction is small, which indicates that the method based on transfer matrix is effective.
【作者单位】：武汉科技大学汽车与交通工程学院;同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51178343)
【分类号】：U491.17

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