突发事件下城市路网交通应急疏散模型研究
发布时间：2018-12-29 18:19
【摘要】：突发事件发生后,将突发事件影响区域内的人员及时地安置到安全地带,是防止和减少人员伤亡、避免造成二次灾难事故的重要措施。当前国内针对突发事件的应急管理尚处在起步阶段,相关理论研究和应用还比较薄弱。因此,为有序实施突发事件发生后的交通组织,为后续提出应急疏散组织方法提供理论条件和依据,迫切需要对突发事件下的城市路网应急疏散进行全面系统的研究,建立符合突发事件情况下城市路网疏散特征的疏散优化模型和突发事件下城市路网疏散的建模体系。本文在分析国内外突发事件下城市交通应急疏散研究现状的基础上,查阅了大量关于网络优化、动态交通分配、元胞传输模型、交通管理控制等领域的文献,分析了突发事件的特性和现有的管理手段,在对突发事件疏散特性和交通需求特性进行研究的基础上,主要做了以下工作:首先,在动态交通网络的前提下建立了考虑信号交叉口延误的突发事件下城市路网应急交通疏散元胞传输模型,创新性地考虑了交叉口由信号控制的情况,并将路段、交叉口、起点和终点单独考虑,克服了传统元胞传输模型只考虑路段延误、忽略交叉口排队延误和疏散起点等待时间的缺点。其次,在以上基础上又建立了基于元胞传输模型(CTM)的突发事件下城市应急疏散的双层规划模型,将实际疏散交通管理决策问题分解为拥有一个上层问题和若干具有各自优化目标的下层问题的双层规划模型,上层模型采用动态系统最优分配的原则进行路径规划,下层模型对疏散路网各个交叉口信号配时进行实时优化,并采用KKT法和遗传算法对模型进行了求解。最后,结合目前智能交通、卫星导航系统、视频监测技术、车联网等技术的发展,提出了突发事件下城市路网应急疏散的建模流程,并以算例的方式对文章模型和算法进行了验证,验证结果表明,本文提出的模型和算法能够有效的提高突发事件下城市路网应急疏散效率,为后续研究打下了基础,同时为应急疏散交通管理者提供了一个可以参考的组织方案。
[Abstract]:It is an important measure to prevent and reduce the casualties and to avoid the secondary disaster accident by placing the personnel in the area of emergency into the safety zone in time after the occurrence of the emergency. At present, emergency management for emergencies in China is still in its infancy, and the relevant theoretical research and application are relatively weak. Therefore, in order to carry out traffic organization after emergency events in an orderly manner, and to provide theoretical conditions and basis for the subsequent development of emergency evacuation organization methods, it is urgent to conduct a comprehensive and systematic study on emergency evacuation of urban road network under emergency events. The optimal evacuation model in accordance with the characteristics of urban road network evacuation and the model system of urban road network evacuation under unexpected events are established. Based on the analysis of the current situation of urban traffic emergency evacuation at home and abroad, this paper reviews a lot of literature on network optimization, dynamic traffic assignment, cellular transmission model, traffic management and control, etc. The characteristics of emergency and the existing management methods are analyzed. On the basis of studying the characteristics of evacuation and traffic demand, the following work is done: first of all, Under the premise of dynamic traffic network, the cell transmission model of emergency traffic evacuation in urban road network is established under the emergency events considering the delay of signalized intersection, and the situation that intersection is controlled by signal is considered innovatively, and the road sections and intersections are taken into account. Considering the starting point and the end point separately, it overcomes the shortcoming that the traditional cellular transmission model only considers the road delay and neglects the queue delay and the evacuation starting point waiting time at the intersection. Secondly, a bilevel programming model of urban emergency evacuation based on cellular transmission model (CTM) is established. The actual evacuation traffic management decision problem is decomposed into a bilevel programming model with one upper layer problem and several lower level problems with respective optimization objectives. The upper layer model adopts the principle of optimal allocation of dynamic system to carry out path planning. The lower layer model is used to optimize the signal timing of each intersection of the evacuation road network in real time, and the model is solved by KKT method and genetic algorithm. Finally, combined with the development of intelligent transportation, satellite navigation system, video monitoring technology, vehicle networking and other technologies, the modeling process of emergency evacuation of urban road network under unexpected events is put forward. The model and algorithm are verified by an example. The results show that the proposed model and algorithm can effectively improve the efficiency of emergency evacuation of urban road network under sudden events, and lay a foundation for further research. At the same time for emergency evacuation traffic managers to provide a reference to the organization.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491
[Abstract]:It is an important measure to prevent and reduce the casualties and to avoid the secondary disaster accident by placing the personnel in the area of emergency into the safety zone in time after the occurrence of the emergency. At present, emergency management for emergencies in China is still in its infancy, and the relevant theoretical research and application are relatively weak. Therefore, in order to carry out traffic organization after emergency events in an orderly manner, and to provide theoretical conditions and basis for the subsequent development of emergency evacuation organization methods, it is urgent to conduct a comprehensive and systematic study on emergency evacuation of urban road network under emergency events. The optimal evacuation model in accordance with the characteristics of urban road network evacuation and the model system of urban road network evacuation under unexpected events are established. Based on the analysis of the current situation of urban traffic emergency evacuation at home and abroad, this paper reviews a lot of literature on network optimization, dynamic traffic assignment, cellular transmission model, traffic management and control, etc. The characteristics of emergency and the existing management methods are analyzed. On the basis of studying the characteristics of evacuation and traffic demand, the following work is done: first of all, Under the premise of dynamic traffic network, the cell transmission model of emergency traffic evacuation in urban road network is established under the emergency events considering the delay of signalized intersection, and the situation that intersection is controlled by signal is considered innovatively, and the road sections and intersections are taken into account. Considering the starting point and the end point separately, it overcomes the shortcoming that the traditional cellular transmission model only considers the road delay and neglects the queue delay and the evacuation starting point waiting time at the intersection. Secondly, a bilevel programming model of urban emergency evacuation based on cellular transmission model (CTM) is established. The actual evacuation traffic management decision problem is decomposed into a bilevel programming model with one upper layer problem and several lower level problems with respective optimization objectives. The upper layer model adopts the principle of optimal allocation of dynamic system to carry out path planning. The lower layer model is used to optimize the signal timing of each intersection of the evacuation road network in real time, and the model is solved by KKT method and genetic algorithm. Finally, combined with the development of intelligent transportation, satellite navigation system, video monitoring technology, vehicle networking and other technologies, the modeling process of emergency evacuation of urban road network under unexpected events is put forward. The model and algorithm are verified by an example. The results show that the proposed model and algorithm can effectively improve the efficiency of emergency evacuation of urban road network under sudden events, and lay a foundation for further research. At the same time for emergency evacuation traffic managers to provide a reference to the organization.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491
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