考虑交通信息影响基于前景理论的居民出行选择行为研究

发布时间：2019-01-01 11:37

【摘要】：在交通研究领域中,出行方式选择问题则是其中一个重要研究对象。本研究主要运用前景理论,研究城市居民出行方式选择,旨在完善和丰富出行方式选择行为决策的预测方法。本研究首先从出行方式选择、基于前景理论的出行行为及考虑交通信息影响的出行行为研究三方面进行国内外研究综述。之后,对居民出行方式选择过程进行了描述,在此基础上深入分析了出行方式选择的影响因素。并对出行方式选择研究的相关理论(期望效用理论和前景理论)的基本内涵进行了详细介绍,比较了二者的差异。另外,对前景理论在出行方式选择中的适用性进行了分析,并建立了基于前景理论的出行方式选择的思路框架。同时,考虑到前景理论模型参数在不同情况下、地区差异较大,本研究基于前景理论思想设计了调查问卷,并针对乌鲁木齐居民实施调查,得到一组能够较好地描述出行者出行选择行为的前景理论参数。其次,考虑到交通信息对出行方式选择的影响,实施问卷调查,应用Logit模型确定出行者选择各出行方式的出行时间价值。在此基础上,基于效用理论概念、意义及应用形式,本研究引入一种“理想出行方式”,并将表示某出行方式与理想出行方式间的接近程度的灰关联系数作为效用函数,建立出行方式选择Logit模型。此外,重点考虑到出行者的有限理性、参考点依赖和损失规避特征,本研究构建了基于前景理论和灰关联分析的出行方式选择模型,主要借鉴TOPSIS思想,设置正负理想方案为参考点,利用灰关联系数建立改进的前景理论价值函数,基于综合前景值建立出行方式选择Logit模型,计算出行者出行方式选择概率。最后,通过乌鲁木齐居民出行方式选择实例,运用本研究构建的基于前景理论和灰关联分析法的出行方式选择模型对居民出行方式选择进行了分析,并对比分析基于期望效用理论的预测结果与基于前景理论得到的结果以及实际调查结果,发现基于前景理论模型得到的决策结果与出行者实际的交通选择行为相一致,进一步验证了基于前景理论和灰关联分析法在出行方式选择研究中的适用性和有效性。
[Abstract]:In the field of transportation research, the choice of travel mode is one of the important research objects. The purpose of this study is to improve and enrich the prediction methods of trip choice behavior decision. In this paper, we firstly summarize the research on trip mode choice, trip behavior based on foreground theory and travel behavior considering the influence of traffic information at home and abroad. After that, the paper describes the process of residents' travel mode selection, and then analyzes the factors influencing the choice of travel mode. The basic connotations of the related theories (expected utility theory and prospect theory) are introduced in detail, and the differences between the two theories are compared. In addition, the applicability of foreground theory in travel mode selection is analyzed, and the framework of trip mode selection based on foreground theory is established. At the same time, considering that the parameters of foreground theory model are different in different situations, this paper designs a questionnaire based on foreground theory, and carries out a survey on Urumqi residents. A set of foreground theory parameters which can describe the traveler's travel choice behavior is obtained. Secondly, considering the influence of traffic information on the choice of travel mode, the paper applies the Logit model to determine the travel time value of each travel mode. On this basis, based on the concept, significance and application form of utility theory, this study introduces a kind of "ideal travel mode", and takes the grey correlation coefficient, which represents the degree of proximity between a certain travel mode and an ideal trip mode, as a utility function. The Logit model of travel mode selection is established. In addition, considering the characteristics of limited rationality, reference point dependence and loss avoidance of travelers, this study constructs a travel mode selection model based on foreground theory and grey correlation analysis, which mainly uses TOPSIS for reference. The positive and negative ideal scheme is set up as the reference point, the improved foreground theory value function is established by using the grey correlation coefficient, the Logit model of trip mode selection is established based on the comprehensive foreground value, and the travel mode selection probability is calculated. Finally, through the Urumqi residents travel mode selection example, using this study based on the prospect theory and grey correlation analysis of travel mode selection model to analyze the residents travel mode choice. By comparing the prediction results based on the expected utility theory with the results based on the prospect theory and the actual survey results, it is found that the decision results based on the prospect theory model are consistent with the actual traffic choice behavior of the travelers. The applicability and effectiveness of the foreground theory and grey correlation analysis in the study of trip mode selection are further verified.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491

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