基于驾驶行为的VMS交通诱导信息的优化研究
发布时间：2019-02-17 13:51
【摘要】：近年来,我国快速发展的社会经济和不断提高的生活水平,使得汽车保有量逐年攀升。快速增长的汽车保有量,不仅给人民群众的出行带来了便利,同时也导致了城市交通拥堵问题的出现。采用行为(Revealed Preference,RP)调查和意向(Stated Preference,SP)调查联合调查,分析驾驶人对可变信息标注(Variable Massage Signs,VMS)关注度的影响因素,挖掘影响驾驶人路径选择行为的因素,从VMS信息对出行者路径选择行为的影响机理出发,优化可变信息情报板上VMS信息的设计,实现对驾驶人路径选择更加有效的诱导,最终达到缓解日益严重的交通拥堵的目的。本研究结合西安市二环,对城市道路的VMS信息进行优化设计。首先,从驾驶人个人属性、出行特征、VMS信息发布形式和内容4个方面选取8个自变量构建驾驶人对VMS信息关注度的有序Logit模型和部分优势比模型,分析显著影响驾驶人对VMS信息关注度的因素。通过检验指标对比分析有序Logit模型和部分优势比模型的优劣。采用弹性分析的方法,定量分析显著影响因素对驾驶人关注VMS信息的影响程度。以西安市城市道路上的驾驶人对二环可变信息情报板上的VMS信息的关注度为例,进行实证性分析研究。其次,从驾驶人个人属性、出行特征和路况信息属性3个方面选取11个变量构建驾驶人路径选择二项Logit模型,并引进Jackknife和Bootstrap技术进一步提高Logit模型的精度。分类讨论发布VMS信息发布内容中是否建议绕行、拥堵时间和拥堵原因以及VMS信息的发布形式和更新频率对驾驶人路径选择的影响程度。以西安市南二环上的驾驶人对路径选择的选择为例,进行实证性分析研究。最后,从驾驶人个人属性、出行特征、出行天气、路况信息属性和信息发布颜色5个方面选取16个自变量构建优化VMS信息的多项Logit模型和巢式Logit模型。通过检验指标对比分析多项Logit模型和巢式Logit模型的优劣。采用弹性分析的方法,定量分析显著影响因素影响驾驶人对VMS信息偏好的程度。以西安市城市道路上的驾驶人对西安市二环上可变信息情报板上的VMS信息的偏好情况为例,进行实证性分析研究。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of social economy and rising living standard in China, the number of cars has been increasing year by year. The rapid growth of vehicle ownership not only brings convenience to people's travel, but also leads to the emergence of urban traffic congestion. In this paper, Revealed Preference,RP survey and Stated Preference,SP survey are used to analyze the influencing factors of the driver's attention to variable information tagging (Variable Massage Signs,VMS), and to excavate the factors that affect the driver's path choice behavior. Based on the mechanism of the influence of VMS information on the path selection behavior of travelers, the design of VMS information on the variable information board is optimized to induce the driver route selection more effectively, and finally to alleviate the increasingly serious traffic congestion. In this study, the VMS information of urban roads is optimized with the second ring of Xi'an city. First of all, eight independent variables are selected from four aspects of driver's personal attributes, travel characteristics, VMS information release form and content to construct the orderly Logit model and partial advantage ratio model of the driver's attention to VMS information. The factors that significantly affect the attention of drivers to VMS information are analyzed. The advantages and disadvantages of the ordered Logit model and the partial dominance ratio model are analyzed by comparing the test indexes. Elastic analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of significant influencing factors on driver's attention to VMS information. Taking the attention of the drivers on Xi'an city road to the VMS information on the second ring variable information board as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out. Secondly, 11 variables are selected from the driver's personal attributes, travel characteristics and road information attributes to construct the binomial Logit model of driver's path selection, and the Jackknife and Bootstrap techniques are introduced to further improve the accuracy of the Logit model. The classification discusses whether to make a detour in the publication of VMS information, the congestion time and the reason of congestion, and the influence of the distribution form and update frequency of VMS information on the driver's path choice. Taking the driver's choice of route choice on the second Ring Road of Xi'an as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out. Finally, 16 independent variables are selected from five aspects: personal attributes of driver, travel characteristics, travel weather, road condition information attributes and information publishing color to construct multi-item Logit model and nested Logit model for optimizing VMS information. The advantages and disadvantages of multi-item Logit model and nested Logit model are analyzed by comparing the test indexes. By means of elastic analysis, the degree of drivers' preference for VMS information was analyzed quantitatively. Taking the preference of drivers on Xi'an city road to the VMS information on the variable information board of the second ring of Xi'an city as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U495
本文编号：2425230
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of social economy and rising living standard in China, the number of cars has been increasing year by year. The rapid growth of vehicle ownership not only brings convenience to people's travel, but also leads to the emergence of urban traffic congestion. In this paper, Revealed Preference,RP survey and Stated Preference,SP survey are used to analyze the influencing factors of the driver's attention to variable information tagging (Variable Massage Signs,VMS), and to excavate the factors that affect the driver's path choice behavior. Based on the mechanism of the influence of VMS information on the path selection behavior of travelers, the design of VMS information on the variable information board is optimized to induce the driver route selection more effectively, and finally to alleviate the increasingly serious traffic congestion. In this study, the VMS information of urban roads is optimized with the second ring of Xi'an city. First of all, eight independent variables are selected from four aspects of driver's personal attributes, travel characteristics, VMS information release form and content to construct the orderly Logit model and partial advantage ratio model of the driver's attention to VMS information. The factors that significantly affect the attention of drivers to VMS information are analyzed. The advantages and disadvantages of the ordered Logit model and the partial dominance ratio model are analyzed by comparing the test indexes. Elastic analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of significant influencing factors on driver's attention to VMS information. Taking the attention of the drivers on Xi'an city road to the VMS information on the second ring variable information board as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out. Secondly, 11 variables are selected from the driver's personal attributes, travel characteristics and road information attributes to construct the binomial Logit model of driver's path selection, and the Jackknife and Bootstrap techniques are introduced to further improve the accuracy of the Logit model. The classification discusses whether to make a detour in the publication of VMS information, the congestion time and the reason of congestion, and the influence of the distribution form and update frequency of VMS information on the driver's path choice. Taking the driver's choice of route choice on the second Ring Road of Xi'an as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out. Finally, 16 independent variables are selected from five aspects: personal attributes of driver, travel characteristics, travel weather, road condition information attributes and information publishing color to construct multi-item Logit model and nested Logit model for optimizing VMS information. The advantages and disadvantages of multi-item Logit model and nested Logit model are analyzed by comparing the test indexes. By means of elastic analysis, the degree of drivers' preference for VMS information was analyzed quantitatively. Taking the preference of drivers on Xi'an city road to the VMS information on the variable information board of the second ring of Xi'an city as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U495
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