基于客流需求及交通状况的公交调度优化方法研究

发布时间：2019-03-18 18:47

【摘要】：公交调度是地面公交运营管理的重要组成部分,也是提供便捷、舒适的公交服务的关键技术手段之一。针对目前国内地面公交调度普遍采用人工调度、调度优化技术缺乏有效数据支撑的现状,论文以实际采集的昆山市公交AFC(自动收费采集)刷卡数据为基础,研究了基于公交AFC数据的公交客流需求及沿线交通状况规律提取方法,在此基础上重点研究了地面公交时刻表优化技术和动态调度技术。在公交客流需求及沿线交通状况变化规律提取方法研究方面,论文分析了AFC刷卡数据的特点,分析了历史平均模型、多元线性回归估计在客流需求及沿线交通状况提取中的适用性,在此基础上提出了从AFC刷卡数据中提取乘客到达率及路段旅行速度以表征公交客流需求及沿线道路交通运行状况的算法,并且利用实际数据进行了实验,得到了较为详细的公交需求及交通运行状况数据。在公交时刻表优化技术研究方面,论文将地面公交时刻表优化问题抽象为一个非线性优化问题,在此基础上分析了智能算法在非线性优化问题求解的适用性,并提出了利用遗传算法进行求解的基于历史公交需求与沿线交通状况的公交时刻表优化算法。该算法以乘客平均等待时间为优化目标,以发车次数为约束条件,对实际地面公交线路原有时刻表进行了优化。在公交动态调度技术研究方面,论文首先分析了动态调度的功能需求,进而研究了高峰短掉头以及就近场站空车调度两种动态调度技术的适用性与具体算法。论文采用仿真方法对地面公交时刻表优化算法和动态调度算法进行了评估。仿真结果表明,论文所设计的时刻表优化算法能够在原有时刻表的基础上有效降低乘客平均等待时间；高峰短掉头技术以及就近场站空车调度两种动态调度方法对调度执行时段的公交运力及服务质量有明显提升,但对整体的线路运行的平均等待时间影响较小。
[Abstract]:Bus scheduling is an important part of ground bus operation and management, and it is also one of the key technical means to provide convenient and comfortable bus service. In view of the current situation that manual dispatching is widely used in domestic ground bus dispatching, and the technology of dispatching optimization lacks effective data support, the paper is based on the data collected by AFC (automatic collection of bus charges) card in Kunshan City. This paper studies the extraction method of bus passenger flow demand and traffic conditions along the road based on bus AFC data. On this basis, it focuses on the optimization technology and dynamic scheduling technology of ground bus timetables. In this paper, the characteristics of AFC card payment data and the historical average model are analyzed in terms of the extraction method of bus passenger flow demand and the change rule of traffic condition along the route. The applicability of multivariate linear regression estimation in the extraction of passenger demand and traffic conditions along the route. On this basis, an algorithm is proposed to extract the arrival rate of passengers and the speed of road travel from the data of AFC card swiping to represent the demand of bus passenger flow and the running condition of the road traffic along the road, and the experiment is carried out by using the actual data. The detailed data of bus demand and traffic operation are obtained. In the research of bus schedule optimization technology, this paper abstracts the optimization problem of ground bus schedule into a nonlinear optimization problem, and then analyzes the applicability of intelligent algorithm in solving nonlinear optimization problems. The optimization algorithm of bus schedule based on historical public transportation demand and traffic condition along the route is proposed based on genetic algorithm (GA). Taking the average waiting time of passengers as the optimization objective and the number of departure times as the constraint, the original timetable of the actual ground bus line is optimized. In the research of bus dynamic scheduling technology, this paper first analyzes the functional requirements of dynamic scheduling, and then studies the applicability and specific algorithms of the two dynamic scheduling technologies, namely, peak short-turn and near-field empty vehicle scheduling. In this paper, the simulation method is used to evaluate the optimization algorithm and dynamic scheduling algorithm of ground bus timetables. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce the average waiting time of passengers on the basis of the original timetable. Two dynamic scheduling methods, peak short turn-around technology and empty vehicle scheduling in near-field stations, can improve the public transport capacity and service quality in the scheduling execution period obviously, but have little effect on the average waiting time of the whole line operation.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

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