卫星城公路交通量预测方法应用研究

发布时间：2019-03-28 11:00

【摘要】：公路建设不仅是简单的工程问题,而且是密切关系到具体区域的经济发展问题。特别是县(区)级的卫星城经济发展中,顺畅的交通运输网不仅能将区域间的产业联系起来,而且在保障物质资料互联互通的前提下,对于推进城市整体协调发展具有重要的意义。交通量的准确预测对于确定公路工程建设技术标准、建设技术方案具有基础性的作用。交通量的预测是一种综合预测,其中包含定量与定性预测。通常,区域的经济发展现状、当前路网的分布与运输现状以及未来的交通发展规划等,都是交通量预测中应该考虑的重要参考因素,从而最终选定公路技术标准、比较可行性路线方案、分析各类方案的经济财务效益。但是过去的研究往往集中于高等级公路的交通量预测研究,而对于普通公路,特别是关系未来城市化建设愈加重要的卫星城公路交通量预测的研究并没有引起关注。本论文就针对卫星城公路本身的特性,展开以卫星城公路交通量预测为对象的方法应用研究。首先,论文首先介绍交通量预测在国内外的发展历程,详细说明了目前在国内外比较前沿的交通量预测模型的研究现状。然后,分析总结了较为成熟的四阶段交通量预测方法,包括正常趋势型交通量预测、诱增交通量预测和转移交通量预测。然后,论文对卫星城和卫星城的发展进行了阐释,分析了卫星城交通量预测方法特点。接着结合杭州市富阳区长兴至泰顺公路富阳灵桥至渔山段工程,分析了影响交通量的区域社会经济和交通运输背景。论文最后利用改进的四阶段交通量预测方法进行了交通量预测的案例分析,并根据预测结果对该工程的通行能力展开分析,对车道数进行了细致的论证。本论文有关卫星城公路的交通量预测方法和应用的研究,为相类似公路建设项目的可行性分析和决策提供了可借鉴的方法和思路。
[Abstract]:Highway construction is not only a simple engineering problem, but also closely related to the economic development of specific regions. In particular, in the economic development of the satellite city at the county (district) level, the smooth transportation network can not only link the industries between regions, but also ensure the connectivity of material and data. It is of great significance to promote the coordinated development of the city as a whole. The accurate prediction of traffic volume plays a fundamental role in determining the technical standard and scheme of highway engineering construction. Traffic volume forecast is a kind of comprehensive forecast, which includes quantitative and qualitative prediction. Usually, the current situation of regional economic development, the current distribution and transportation status of the road network and the future traffic development planning are important reference factors that should be taken into account in the traffic volume forecast, so as to finally select the technical standards of the highway. Compare the feasible route scheme, analyze the economic and financial benefits of all kinds of schemes. However, the past researches often focus on the traffic volume prediction of high-grade highways, but the research on the traffic volume prediction of ordinary highways, especially the satellite city highway, which is more and more important for the future urbanization construction, has not attracted much attention. In this paper, aiming at the characteristics of satellite city highway, the method of satellite city highway traffic forecast is studied. First of all, this paper introduces the development of traffic forecasting at home and abroad, and describes the current situation of the research of traffic volume forecasting model which is more advanced at home and abroad. Then, the mature four-stage traffic volume forecasting methods, including normal trend type traffic volume prediction, induced traffic volume forecast and transfer traffic volume forecast, are analyzed and summarized. Then, the paper explains the development of satellite city and satellite city, and analyzes the characteristics of the traffic forecast method of satellite city. Then combined with the project from Changxing to Taishun highway from Changxing to Taishun, this paper analyzes the regional socio-economic and transportation background affecting traffic volume. Finally, an improved four-stage traffic volume forecasting method is used to carry out the case analysis of traffic volume prediction, and the traffic capacity of the project is analyzed according to the prediction results, and the number of lanes is demonstrated in detail. The research on the traffic volume forecasting method and application of satellite city highway in this paper provides a reference method and thought for the feasibility analysis and decision-making of similar highway construction projects.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491.14

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