城市重大突发事件下应急疏散交通流仿真研究

发布时间：2019-04-19 16:26

【摘要】：城市的扩张使得城市系统变的更加复杂,重大突发事件也频繁发生。无可否认,很多突发事件无法准确的预测,基于其偶然性以及危险性,减少人员伤亡、降低财产损失便成为了城市应急突发事件的首要目标。实际上,突发事件本身并不是造成人员伤亡的主要因素,人员在危险区域长时间受困而未及时转移出去才是其主要原因。突发事件包含很多种类,文章选取以城市生产类突发事件为背景进行研究。通常,突发事件的影响范围被划分为三个部分：危险区域、缓冲区域以及安全区域。其中危险区域作为突发事件直接影响区域,其疏散效果决定着整个疏散过程的优劣程度。因此,文章主要对突发事件直接影响区域内的疏散问题进行研究。与常态交通不同,突发事件下疏散车流对时间的要求更高。基于此,文章首先对突发事件下城市交通特征进行了概述,包含城市交通设施、交通流以及交通路网三个方面。然后在此基础上对应急疏散进行了进一步的分析,并确立了文章研究的出发点。为了提高疏散效率,采取一定的策略是可行的。因此,根据突发事件下的交通特征,文章对疏散路网采取单行措施的可行性进行了分析,并阐述了单行设置的原则。疏散总时间费用主要与道路行程时间有关,包含有路段通行时间以及交叉口延误时间,加之突发事件直接影响区域内的应急程度以及路段上的车流密度比较高并且波动性强,因此文章建立了动态的道路阻抗模型。随后,利用所建立的路阻公式,建立了应急疏散模型。并根据模型特点,结合蚁群算法,得到了模型的求解方法。最后,通过一假设案例对其初始网络条件下疏散进行了仿真分析,得到了该案例条件下的路网单行设置方案。然后再对该方案下的疏散情况进行仿真,结果表明其可以明显提高疏散效率。
[Abstract]:The expansion of the city makes the city system become more complex, and the major emergencies also occur frequently. It is undeniable that many emergencies cannot be predicted accurately. Based on their contingency and danger, reducing casualties and property losses has become the primary goal of urban emergency emergencies. In fact, the emergency itself is not the main cause of casualties, and the main reason is that people are trapped in dangerous areas for a long time and do not move out in time. There are many kinds of emergencies. The background of this paper is urban production emergencies. Usually, the impact of emergencies is divided into three parts: dangerous area, buffer area and safety area. Dangerous area as an emergency directly affects the area, the evacuation effect determines the quality of the entire evacuation process. Therefore, this paper mainly studies the evacuation problem in the area which is directly affected by the emergency. Different from normal traffic, the time requirement of evacuation traffic is higher than that of normal traffic. Based on this, this paper firstly summarizes the characteristics of urban traffic under emergency, including urban traffic facilities, traffic flow and traffic network. Then on this basis, the further analysis of emergency evacuation, and establish the starting point of the article. In order to improve the efficiency of evacuation, it is feasible to adopt a certain strategy. Therefore, according to the traffic characteristics of emergency, this paper analyzes the feasibility of taking one-way measures to evacuate the road network, and expounds the principle of single-row setting. The total evacuation time cost is mainly related to the road travel time, including road passage time and intersection delay time, in addition, the emergency degree in the area affected directly by the emergency incident and the traffic flow density on the road section is relatively high and the volatility is strong. Therefore, a dynamic road impedance model is established in this paper. Then, the emergency evacuation model is established by using the established road resistance formula. According to the characteristics of the model and ant colony algorithm, the solution of the model is obtained. Finally, through a hypothetical case, the evacuation under the initial network condition is simulated and analyzed, and the single-row setting scheme of the road network under the condition of this case is obtained. The simulation results show that the evacuation efficiency can be improved obviously.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】