不定期船舶航线优化问题研究
发布时间：2019-05-11 16:23
【摘要】：不定期船运输是国际间运输粮食、铁矿石、煤炭等大宗干散货物的主要方式,与班轮相比具有显著的区别,它不具有固定的航行线路、船期表及挂靠港,运输的灵活性较高,受决策者的影响较大。不定期船航线规划受三大因素的影响,第一,干散货物的运输需求具有很强的不确定性；第二,运费率季节性波动；第三,船舶运输易受天气因素干扰。因此,对于决策者而言,在需求不确定的情况下,如何调度船舶、优化航线是急需解决的问题。本文在分析以上三大随机因素对不定期船运输的影响的基础上,研究不定期船舶航线规划问题。建立了以营运周期内总航次利润最大为目标的数学模型,将模型中货物的运价设定为变动的量,模拟运费率季节性波动的特点,模型中还引入了延误成本,主要用来计算因天气因素发生海上延误所增加的成本,而需求的不确定性主要体现在模型求解的过程中。之后,运用一种智能的启发式算法对模型进行求解,为了保证染色体的长度相等并保留基因的多样性,算法中引入了虚拟船舶,用来运输实际船舶所不能运输的货物。本文将一年的规划周期按季度分为四个阶段,每个阶段初根据更新了的现有货物情况调整每条船舶的航线,那么虚拟船舶的另一个重要作用是：当市场上出现即期货物后,可能需要对原本的航线重新进行规划,在新的运输方案下,原本虚拟船舶中的货物可能可以被运输,若在前期就将这批货物舍弃,可能影响最佳运输方案。最后,以一家经营环太平洋不定期运输航线的中国船公司为例进行算例分析,并进行了敏感度分析和算法评价。研究表明,本文为不定期船公司经营者提供了一个科学的指派货物、调度船舶方法。该方法综合考虑到货物运输需求的不确定性、运费率的季节性和天体因素的影响,使船舶的调度更适应于市场的需求,而且能帮助船公司获得丰厚利润。
[Abstract]:Irregular shipping is the main mode of international transportation of bulk dry bulk cargo, such as grain, iron ore, coal, etc., which is significantly different from liner. It does not have a fixed navigation line, ship schedule and port of port, and the transport flexibility is high. It is greatly influenced by decision makers. The route planning of irregular ships is affected by three factors. First, the transportation demand of dry bulk cargo is very uncertain; second, the freight rate fluctuates seasonally; third, ship transportation is easily disturbed by weather factors. Therefore, for decision makers, how to schedule ships and optimize routes is an urgent problem to be solved under the condition of uncertain demand. Based on the analysis of the influence of the above three random factors on the transportation of irregular ships, this paper studies the problem of route planning of irregular ships. A mathematical model aiming at the maximum total voyage profit in the operation cycle is established. The freight rate of the goods in the model is set as the variable quantity, and the seasonal fluctuation of the freight rate is simulated. The delay cost is also introduced into the model. It is mainly used to calculate the cost of marine delay due to weather factors, and the uncertainty of demand is mainly reflected in the process of solving the model. Then, an intelligent heuristic algorithm is used to solve the model. In order to ensure the equal length of chromosomes and retain the diversity of genes, virtual ships are introduced into the algorithm to transport goods that can not be transported by actual ships. In this paper, the one-year planning cycle is divided into four phases on a quarterly basis. At the beginning of each phase, the course of each ship is adjusted according to the updated existing cargo. Then another important role of the virtual ship is: when spot cargo appears on the market, The original route may need to be replanned. Under the new transportation scheme, the goods in the original virtual ship may be transported, and if the goods are abandoned in the early stage, the best transportation plan may be affected. Finally, a Chinese shipping company operating irregular shipping routes around the Pacific Ocean is taken as an example to analyze, and the sensitivity analysis and algorithm evaluation are carried out. The research shows that this paper provides a scientific method for the operators of irregular shipping companies to assign goods and dispatch ships. This method takes into account the uncertainty of cargo transportation demand, the seasonality of freight rate and the influence of celestial factors, which makes the ship scheduling more suitable for the market demand, and can help the shipping company to obtain rich profits.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U692.31
本文编号：2474653
[Abstract]:Irregular shipping is the main mode of international transportation of bulk dry bulk cargo, such as grain, iron ore, coal, etc., which is significantly different from liner. It does not have a fixed navigation line, ship schedule and port of port, and the transport flexibility is high. It is greatly influenced by decision makers. The route planning of irregular ships is affected by three factors. First, the transportation demand of dry bulk cargo is very uncertain; second, the freight rate fluctuates seasonally; third, ship transportation is easily disturbed by weather factors. Therefore, for decision makers, how to schedule ships and optimize routes is an urgent problem to be solved under the condition of uncertain demand. Based on the analysis of the influence of the above three random factors on the transportation of irregular ships, this paper studies the problem of route planning of irregular ships. A mathematical model aiming at the maximum total voyage profit in the operation cycle is established. The freight rate of the goods in the model is set as the variable quantity, and the seasonal fluctuation of the freight rate is simulated. The delay cost is also introduced into the model. It is mainly used to calculate the cost of marine delay due to weather factors, and the uncertainty of demand is mainly reflected in the process of solving the model. Then, an intelligent heuristic algorithm is used to solve the model. In order to ensure the equal length of chromosomes and retain the diversity of genes, virtual ships are introduced into the algorithm to transport goods that can not be transported by actual ships. In this paper, the one-year planning cycle is divided into four phases on a quarterly basis. At the beginning of each phase, the course of each ship is adjusted according to the updated existing cargo. Then another important role of the virtual ship is: when spot cargo appears on the market, The original route may need to be replanned. Under the new transportation scheme, the goods in the original virtual ship may be transported, and if the goods are abandoned in the early stage, the best transportation plan may be affected. Finally, a Chinese shipping company operating irregular shipping routes around the Pacific Ocean is taken as an example to analyze, and the sensitivity analysis and algorithm evaluation are carried out. The research shows that this paper provides a scientific method for the operators of irregular shipping companies to assign goods and dispatch ships. This method takes into account the uncertainty of cargo transportation demand, the seasonality of freight rate and the influence of celestial factors, which makes the ship scheduling more suitable for the market demand, and can help the shipping company to obtain rich profits.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U692.31
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