高速公路施工区车辆强制换道耗时生存模型

发布时间：2019-05-17 10:00

【摘要】：为研究高速公路施工区车辆强制换道行为及其影响因素,采用生存分析中的半参数分析方法建立强制换道耗时的乘法风险率模型.通过无人机拍摄采集高速公路施工区的车辆换道耗时及其影响因素数据,最终确立换道耗时Cox比例风险模型,对换道耗时数据进行Cox回归建模分析.结果表明:近77%的换道车辆在10 s内完成换道;小型车和中型车经养护施工区的换道耗时未发现显著性差别;对于相同的换道耗时,平峰期的累积生存率明显低于高峰期和过渡时期,而高峰期的累积生存率最高.建立的强制换道耗时生存模型可有效的定量分析车型和交通时段对高速公路施工区车辆换道行为的影响,可为高速公路施工区交通管理控制及车辆换道行为建模及仿真奠定一定的理论基础.
[Abstract]:In order to study the forced lane change behavior of vehicles in expressway construction area and its influencing factors, the semi-parameter analysis method in survival analysis is used to establish the multiplication risk rate model of forced lane change time. The data of vehicle switching time and its influencing factors in expressway construction area are collected by UAV photography. Finally, the Cox proportional risk model of lane change time is established, and the Cox regression modeling and analysis of lane change time data are carried out. The results show that nearly 77% of the vehicles change lanes within 10 seconds, and there is no significant difference in the changing time between small vehicles and medium vehicles through the maintenance and construction area. For the same switching time, the cumulative survival rate of flat peak period was significantly lower than that of peak period and transition period, and the cumulative survival rate of peak period was the highest. The time-consuming survival model of forced lane change can effectively quantitatively analyze the influence of vehicle type and traffic time on the traffic change behavior of expressway construction area. It can lay a theoretical foundation for the modeling and simulation of traffic management control and vehicle switching behavior in expressway construction area.
【作者单位】：长安大学公路学院;Atkins;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51208052) 中央高校基本科研业务费资助(310821172202) 中国博士后科学基金(2015M582593) 云南省交通运输厅科技计划(云交科2014(A)29)
【分类号】：U491

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