埃及道路施工区交通事故致因建模分析

发布时间：2021-11-24 06:13

　　埃及国家公路项目是一个大型的基础设施建设项目,当前的目标是在升级2500公里公路网的同时,新建4000公里的公路,以满足当今人们的出行需求。高速公路建设和维护项目的激增,导致作业区域数量显著增加,使得交通环境的安全风险增大。在建设和养护作业中,确保交通环境的安全和效率非常重要,因此,辨识与施工区交通事故伤害程度相关的主要因素并研究其特征就变得十分必要。出于研究目的,本文采集了2010至2016年间发生在埃及公路养护和修复工程施工区的交通事故数据,用于分析事故的严重程度。数据分析按照以下步骤进行。首先,运用描述性统计分析来寻找该区域的事故特征。然后通过因子分析,鉴别对施工区事故有影响的主要因素,并计算各因素的权重,构建ordered probit模型以测量各因子的显著性。利用Separate mixed logit模型来鉴别对日间和夜间事故的严重程度有显著影响的因素。最后,使用ordered probit对单一车辆事故和多车事故数据进行有序概率回归分析,找出影响事故严重程度的重要风险因素。根据分析结果,性别、道路特征和行车速度是造成施工区追尾事故的最主要因素。此外,施工区事故中52.6%... 

【文章来源】：西南交通大学四川省 211工程院校 教育部直属院校

【文章页数】：131 页

【学位级别】：博士

【文章目录】：
Abstract
摘要
Chapter 1 Introduction
    1.1 Background
    1.2 Problem statement
    1.3 Research objectives
    1.4 Thesis organization
Chapter 2 Literature Review
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Previous researches on characteristics of work zone crashes
    2.3 Previous researches on injury severity modeling
    2.4 Previous researches on work zone rear-end crashes
    2.5 Injury severity of single and multi-vehicle crashes
    2.6 Nighttime and daytime crashes
    2.7 Factor analysis method
Chapter 3 Data Collection and Methodology
    3.1 Data
    3.2 Data Analysis
        3.2.1 Test of independence
    3.3 Factor analysis
    3.4 Work Zone crash severity model
        3.4.1 Pearson correlation factor
        3.4.2 Multicollinearity
        3.4.3 The mixed multinomial logit(MMNL)model
        3.4.4 Ordered probit modeling
Chapter 4 Results and Discussion
    4.1 Characteristics of work zone crashes
        4.1.1 Distribution of crashes by user related
        4.1.2 Distribution by crash severity
        4.1.3 Distribution by environment conditions factor
    4.2 Analysis of interrelated crash factors
        4.2.1 Introduction
        4.2.2 Test of independence results
    4.3 Work zone crashes
        4.3.1 Factor analysis
        4.3.2 Estimations of the ordered probit model
    4.4 Work zone rear-end crashes
        4.4.1 Factor analysis
        4.4.2 Model estimation results
    4.5 Work zone crash injury severity models
        4.5.1 Crash severity modeling for nighttime and daytime work zone crashes..
        4.5.2 Crash severity modeling for multi-vehicle work zone crashes
        4.5.3 Crash severity modeling for single-vehicle work zone crashes
Chapter 5 Conclusions& Recommendation
    5.1 Summary
    5.2 Conclusions
        5.2.1 Work zone characteristic conclusions
        5.2.2 Test of independence conclusions
        5.2.3 Factor analysis conclusions
        5.2.4 Modeling conclusions
    5.3 Recommendations
        5.3.1 Education
        5.3.2 Traffic control devices
        5.3.3 Police crash report
        5.3.4 Future research direction
Acknowledgement
References
Appendix A-Sample of Pearson correlation matrix:nighttime work zone crashes
    Sample of Pearson correlation matrix:multi-vehicles work zone crashes
    Sample of Variance Inflation Factor(VIF)test
Appendix B-Analysis of interrelated crash factors
Appendix C-Factor analysis for Rear-end crashes
Published papers during degree period



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