新一代智能变电站主接线设计方案技术经济性评价

发布时间：2018-05-07 15:39

本文选题：新一代智能变电站 + 不确定随机系统　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：受运维习惯、思维固化、技术瓶颈、专业涉及广等方面的影响,智能变电站的发展遇到了瓶颈,新一代智能变电站是在智能变电站的历史运维经验基础上的再创造,它可破了传统的设计理念,形成一个开通、动态的系统,对新设备及前沿技术具有更强的接纳度,因此新一代智能变电站必将成为变电站的发展方向。新一代智能变电站目前正处于发展及建设的初期,在这一阶段设计方案的分析选择将是一项重点工程。新一代智能变电站的设计方案分析选择面临的问题是:(1)已有评价模型无法考虑新型设备的引入问题,由于新设备的引入会导致新一代智能变电站在技术经济性方面都存在一定程度的改变;(2)已有评价模型无法考虑设计阶段运行成本、故障成本、事故发生次数等指标的不确定性;(3)已有评价模型主要定位于管理层,用以衡量战略目标的实现程度,且无技术经济方面的综合评价模型,因此在设计方案评价实际应用上有一定难度。围绕以上问题并结合新一代智能变电站特点,本文首先提出了一种实用性更强的改进安全效能成本评价模型(Security Efficiency Cost,SEC),并应用此模型来对新一代智能变电站设计方案进行评选,此模型充分考虑到新一代智能变电站的特点及设计方案阶段的各种不确定性。在效能分析方面,为解决新型设备引入后因历史可靠性数据的缺乏而导致效能分析难以进行的问题,本文提出基于不确定随机系统的可靠性分析方法,此法将新型设备的可靠性作为不确定变量,并传统设备的可靠性数据作为随机变量,然后应用不确定理论及最小路集算法求出新一代智能变电站主接线的可靠性数据。论文同时考虑到了保护系统对于主接线系统的可靠性影响。在安全分析方面,为解决设计方案阶段事故发生次数的不确定性问题,论文以重大事故发生次数、中等事故发生次数、一般事故发生次数表征安全性,考虑到以上三个指标的不确定性,论文通过蒙特卡罗法予以处理。在经济分析方面,为解决设计阶段故障成本及运行成本的未知问题,论文利用可靠性成本来表征上述两类成本指标,而可靠性与经济性通过平均停电损失电能指标联系;为解决各项成本指标在模型中所占权重的问题,论文利用基于熵权的模糊综合评价法确定四项二级成本指标之间的权重,将客观运算权重与专家主观评分权重分别添加一个占比系数,然后以合理的方式将两个权重加权结合起来,避免了主观性及指标的模糊性对权重确定工作造成的影响。论文最后利用220k V新一代智能变电站的典型设计方案进行综合性评选,验证本文所提方法的正确性及可行性。
[Abstract]:Affected by operation and maintenance habits, thinking solidification, technical bottleneck, specialty involved in a wide range of aspects, the development of intelligent substations has encountered bottlenecks. The new generation of intelligent substations is recreated on the basis of the historical operation and maintenance experience of intelligent substations. It can break through the traditional design concept, form a open and dynamic system, and have a stronger acceptance of new equipment and frontier technology. Therefore, the new generation of intelligent substation will become the development direction of substation. The new generation intelligent substation is now in the early stage of development and construction. The analysis and selection of design scheme will be a key project in this stage. The problem facing the analysis and selection of the new generation intelligent substation design scheme is that the existing evaluation model cannot consider the introduction of new equipment. Since the introduction of new equipment will lead to a certain degree of technical and economic changes in the new generation of intelligent substations, the existing evaluation model can not take into account the operating cost and failure cost of the design phase. (3) the existing evaluation models are mainly located at the management level, which are used to measure the degree of achievement of strategic objectives, and there is no comprehensive evaluation model in terms of technology and economy. Therefore, it is difficult to evaluate the design scheme in practice. According to the above problems and the characteristics of the new generation intelligent substation, this paper first puts forward a cost evaluation model of improved safety effectiveness, Security Efficiency cost evaluation model, and applies this model to evaluate the design scheme of the new generation intelligent substation. This model fully takes into account the characteristics of the new generation intelligent substation and various uncertainties in the design scheme stage. In the aspect of efficiency analysis, in order to solve the problem that efficiency analysis is difficult because of the lack of historical reliability data after the introduction of new equipment, a reliability analysis method based on uncertain stochastic system is proposed in this paper. In this method, the reliability of a new type of equipment is regarded as an uncertain variable, and the reliability data of a traditional equipment is taken as a random variable. Then, the reliability data of the main connection of a new generation intelligent substation are obtained by using the uncertainty theory and the minimum path set algorithm. At the same time, the effect of the protection system on the reliability of the main connection system is considered. In the aspect of safety analysis, in order to solve the uncertainty of the number of accidents in the stage of design scheme, the safety is characterized by the number of major accidents, the number of moderate accidents and the number of general accidents. Considering the uncertainty of the above three indexes, the paper deals with them by Monte Carlo method. In the aspect of economic analysis, in order to solve the unknown problem of failure cost and operation cost in design stage, the reliability cost is used to characterize the two kinds of cost indexes, and reliability and economy are related by the average power loss index. In order to solve the problem of the weight of each cost index in the model, the paper uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight to determine the weight between the four secondary cost indicators. The objective operation weight and the expert subjective score weight are respectively added with a duty ratio coefficient, and then the two weights are combined in a reasonable way to avoid the influence of subjectivity and the fuzziness of the index on the weight determination work. At the end of this paper, the typical design scheme of 220kV new generation intelligent substation is used for comprehensive selection, which verifies the correctness and feasibility of the proposed method.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM63;TM76

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