基于风电场功率特性的风电预测误差分布估计
发布时间：2019-08-06 15:42
【摘要】：风电功率预测对风电场运行和电网调度决策具有重要影响。基于风电场的功率特性曲线,提出了一种风电预测误差分布的估计方法。首先根据历史运行数据对风电场的功率特性曲线进行拟合;然后按照风电场的切入风速和额定风速将历史实测数据划分为3部分,并利用改进后的广义误差分布等模型提取每一部分风电功率预测误差的概率密度特性,根据其数值特征,设定相应的风电功率修正方法和预测误差分布的估计方法;最后按照待测日预测风速的大小选择对应的修正方法补偿所预测的功率,并估计预测误差的分布范围。结合中国北方某风电场的实际运行数据进行了仿真算例分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。
[Abstract]:Wind power prediction has an important influence on wind farm operation and power grid dispatching decision. Based on the power characteristic curve of wind farm, an estimation method of wind power prediction error distribution is proposed. Firstly, the power characteristic curve of wind farm is fitted according to the historical operation data, and then the historical measured data are divided into three parts according to the cut wind speed and rated wind speed of wind farm, and the probability density characteristics of wind power prediction error of each part are extracted by using the improved generalized error distribution model, and the corresponding wind power correction method and prediction error distribution estimation method are set according to its numerical characteristics. Finally, according to the magnitude of the predicted wind speed on the measured day, the corresponding correction method is selected to compensate the predicted power, and the distribution range of the prediction error is estimated. Based on the actual operation data of a wind farm in northern China, a simulation example is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
【作者单位】： 电力系统国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系);国网冀北电力有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51677099) 国家电网公司项目(新能源接入±500 kV柔性直流电网运行适应性研究)~~
【分类号】：TM614
本文编号：2523608
[Abstract]:Wind power prediction has an important influence on wind farm operation and power grid dispatching decision. Based on the power characteristic curve of wind farm, an estimation method of wind power prediction error distribution is proposed. Firstly, the power characteristic curve of wind farm is fitted according to the historical operation data, and then the historical measured data are divided into three parts according to the cut wind speed and rated wind speed of wind farm, and the probability density characteristics of wind power prediction error of each part are extracted by using the improved generalized error distribution model, and the corresponding wind power correction method and prediction error distribution estimation method are set according to its numerical characteristics. Finally, according to the magnitude of the predicted wind speed on the measured day, the corresponding correction method is selected to compensate the predicted power, and the distribution range of the prediction error is estimated. Based on the actual operation data of a wind farm in northern China, a simulation example is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
【作者单位】： 电力系统国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系);国网冀北电力有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51677099) 国家电网公司项目(新能源接入±500 kV柔性直流电网运行适应性研究)~~
【分类号】：TM614
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