变电站综合自动化改造项目的风险控制研究

发布时间：2018-07-01 08:01

本文选题：变电站综合自动化改造 + 风险识别　；参考：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着电网的快速发展,变电站由常规站改造为综自站已成为电力发展的必然趋势。由于该类工程有规模大、时间跨度长、施工难度高、安全风险大的特点,开展项目风险管理与控制研究是十分必要的。本文依据科学的项目风险管理理论,分析并确定了变电站综自改造项目常用的风险识别、估计、评价常用的方法或工具,其中,项目风险识别常用的方法有头脑风暴法、流程图法、风险核对表法,项目风险估计常用的方法是主观评分法和概率估算法,项目风险评价常用的方法有模糊综合评价法、层次分析法和LEC风险评价法。依据风险管理规划理论,编制了MD变电站综自改造项目风险管理规划。利用风险识别理论,按照变电站综自改造项目实施过程逐一分析了常见的风险因素并绘制风险识别表,MD变电站综自改造项目一级风险6个,二级风险24个。构建了变电站综自改造项目风险评价体系,其中,整体风险模糊综合评价模型用于变电站综自改造项目整体风险评估,优化的LEC方法用于变电站综自改造项目二级风险危险程度评估；经综合评估MD变电站综自改造项目整体风险系数为0.581,属中等风险,风险在可控范围内；稍有危险的二级风险13个,一般危险的二级风险7个,显著危险的二级风险3个,高度危险的二级风险1个。依据项目风险应对策略,提出MD变电站综自改造项目风险应对措施；最后,结合综自改造项目特征,提出综自改造项目风险监测预警模式。该项研究有利于变电站综自改造项目组织实施,为预期目标的实现提供了保证,同时对其他电力改造项目的风险管理具有借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of power network, the transformation of substation from conventional station to integrated self-station has become an inevitable trend of power development. Due to the characteristics of large scale, long time span, high construction difficulty and high safety risk, it is necessary to carry out research on project risk management and control. Based on the scientific project risk management theory, this paper analyzes and determines the commonly used methods or tools of risk identification, estimation and evaluation of substation comprehensive self-transformation projects, among which the common methods of project risk identification are brainstorming. Flow chart method, risk check list method, project risk estimation are subjective scoring method and probability estimation method. The common methods of project risk evaluation are fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, AHP method and LEC risk evaluation method. According to the theory of risk management planning, the risk management plan of MD substation comprehensive self-transformation project is worked out. Based on the theory of risk identification, the common risk factors are analyzed one by one according to the implementation process of the project and the risk identification table is drawn up. There are 6 first-grade risks and 24 second-level risks in MD substation self-transformation projects. In this paper, a risk evaluation system of substation comprehensive self-transformation project is constructed, in which the overall risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is used to evaluate the overall risk of the comprehensive self-transformation project of substation. The optimized LEC method is used to assess the secondary risk degree of the comprehensive self-transformation project in substations, and the overall risk coefficient of the comprehensive evaluation is 0.581in MD substation, which belongs to the medium risk and the risk is under control. There are 13 secondary risks with slight danger, 7 with general risk, 3 with significant risk and 1 with high risk. According to the project risk response strategy, put forward the MD substation comprehensive self-transformation project risk response measures; finally, combined with the characteristics of the comprehensive self-transformation project, put forward the comprehensive self-transformation project risk monitoring and early warning model. This study is beneficial to the organization and implementation of the substation comprehensive self-transformation project, and provides a guarantee for the realization of the expected goal, and also has reference significance for the risk management of other electric power transformation projects.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.61

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