云南省能源需求预测模型的研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 18:17

本文关键词：云南省能源需求预测模型的研究　出处：《昆明理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源是经济发展、人类生存必不可少的重要资源。在不久的将来,我国将全面完成工业化与城镇化进程,实现现代化,这必然会导致能源消耗的大幅度增加。对云南省能源生产和消费情况进行科学地预测,这对于能源的正确监管与规划,促进云南省地区生产总值的增加,构建和谐社会和节约型社会,具有十分重要的意义。本文通过对云南省能源消费和生产现状全面详细分析的基础上,综合运用多元线性回归预测模型、灰色GM(1,1)预测模型、三次指数平法预测模型和单位GDP能耗法预测模型,对云南省的能源消费和生产情况进行了预测与分析,并且对云南省能源产业的发展提出对策及建议。首先,论述了能源问题与社会协调发展之间的关系,分析了云南省能源发展的现状和面临的节能压力。第二,介绍了能源系统的相关概念和能源预测的内容、分类、意义以及预测常用的方法。第三,全面系统地分析了影响云南省能源消费总量的主要因素,建立了预测模型并且对模型的预测精度进行了检验。最后,从云南省的能源生产和消费两个角度分析了云南省的能源结构和消费特点,找出了云南省能源系统中存在的问题,根据能源预测模型,对云南省能源的使用情况进行了分析,提出了促进云南省能源产业发展相关对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Energy is an indispensable resource for economic development and human survival. In the near future, China will complete the process of industrialization and urbanization and realize modernization. This will inevitably lead to a large increase in energy consumption. To predict the energy production and consumption in Yunnan Province scientifically, which is the correct supervision and planning of energy, and promote the increase of the GDP of Yunnan Province. It is of great significance to build a harmonious society and a conservation-oriented society. Based on the comprehensive and detailed analysis of energy consumption and production in Yunnan Province, this paper comprehensively applies the multiple linear regression prediction model. The energy consumption and production of Yunnan Province are predicted and analyzed by grey GMX 1 / 1) model, cubic exponential flat method and unit GDP energy consumption method. And put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of energy industry in Yunnan Province. Firstly, it discusses the relationship between energy problems and coordinated development of society, analyzes the current situation of energy development in Yunnan Province and the pressure of energy conservation. This paper introduces the related concepts of energy system and the content, classification, significance and common methods of energy prediction. Thirdly, the main factors affecting the total energy consumption in Yunnan Province are analyzed comprehensively and systematically. The prediction model is established and the prediction accuracy of the model is tested. Finally, the energy structure and consumption characteristics of Yunnan Province are analyzed from the perspective of energy production and consumption. This paper finds out the problems existing in the energy system of Yunnan Province, analyzes the situation of energy use in Yunnan Province according to the energy prediction model, and puts forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of energy industry in Yunnan Province.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.2

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