不确定性优化方法在福建省能源系统规划中的应用

发布时间：2018-01-12 19:15

本文关键词：不确定性优化方法在福建省能源系统规划中的应用　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,随着经济社会的快速发展和人民生活水平的提高,福建省能源系统正面临着越来越严峻的经济问题和环境问题,诸如：能源供需问题和温室气体排放控制等。由于经济效益和环境效益本身在一定程度上是相互冲突的,如何平衡福建省能源系统在中长期可预见未来的环境效益和经济效益,已经成为一个棘手的难题。因此,福建省能源系统的相关决策部门迫切需要对福建省的能源资源供应、电力生产和扩容,以及清洁能源开发利用等方面,进行具有合理性、可靠性和有效性的规划。本研究为福建省能源系统提出了一个中长期(25年)的规划方案,并设置了分别以环境效益和经济效益为侧重点的情景。在情景1的模型建立中,本研究引入了区间混合整数分式规划的方法,要求能源系统加大对清洁能源的开发利用程度,以替代传统的化石能源消费,从而体现侧重环境效益的思路；在情景2的模型建立中,本研究引入了区间混合整数线性规划的方法,要求能源系统的总成本最低,从而体现侧重经济效益的思路。本研究引入了线性区间规划的方法,以处理研究过程中的不确定性因素。本研究最终得出了细节上有显著差异的两套福建省能源系统规划方案,能够为相关决策部门在中长期可预见未来的能源资源供应、电力生产和扩容、清洁能源开发利用,以及温室气体减排等方面提供具有合理性、可靠性和有效性的规划理论参考,从而促进福建省能源系统的能源资源供需平衡、能源消费结构优化调整、清洁能源开发利用和温室气体减排控制。
[Abstract]:Since twenty-first Century, with the rapid development of social economy and the improvement of people's living standard, Fujian province energy system is facing economic and environmental problems become more and more serious, such as: the problem of energy supply and demand and control of greenhouse gas emissions. Due to economic and environmental benefits is in conflict with each other in a certain extent, how to balance Fujian province energy system to foresee the future environmental and economic benefits in the long term, has become a thorny problem. Therefore, the relevant decision-making departments of Fujian province energy system is an urgent need to supply energy resources in Fujian Province, electricity production and expansion, and the development of clean energy utilization, with reliability and rationality. The effectiveness of the plan. This study proposes a long-term energy system of Fujian province (25 years) of the plan, and set respectively in environmental benefits and The economic benefits as the emphasis in 1 scenarios. Establish scenario model, this paper introduces the method of mixed integer linear fractional programming interval, energy system to increase the degree of development and utilization of clean energy, to replace the traditional fossil energy consumption, which focuses on the environmental benefits of ideas; establish 2 models in the scene. This paper introduces the method of mixed integer linear programming with interval, the lowest total cost of energy system, which reflects on the idea of economic efficiency. This paper introduces the method of linear interval programming, to deal with the uncertainty in the research process. The result shows that the significant differences on the details of the two sets of energy in Fujian province the system plan, to the relevant decision-making departments predicted energy resource supply in the future in the long term, power production and expansion, development and utilization of clean energy and greenhouse gases In terms of emission reduction and other aspects, it provides a reasonable, reliable and effective planning theory reference, so as to promote the balance of energy resources supply and demand in Fujian's energy system, optimize the adjustment of energy consumption structure, clean energy development and utilization and greenhouse gas emission reduction control.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.2

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