历史时期苏北平原潮灾的时空分布格局

发布时间：2018-03-12 19:37

本文选题：苏北平原　切入点：历史时期　出处：《海洋通报》2016年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：依据史料的灾害记实以及海岸变迁和人工海堤修筑记录,采用文献调研方法,分析历史时期苏北平原潮灾的时空分布格局特征。研究结果表明,总体格局表现为:在新石器时代为弱灾期;汉时为易发期;隋至唐初为多发期;盛唐至宋以易发期为主,并兼有重灾期凸显;黄河夺淮后,又复多发期。据黄河夺淮至清末的历次潮灾记录分析结果显示,在危害程度上,大潮灾占总潮灾年的30%,中小潮灾各占35%。潮灾在发生时间上,存在1-3月的安全期和6-8月的高发期。在空间分布上,潮灾发生概率总体由南向北呈递减趋势。此外,旱期潮灾约占潮灾总数的10%。据现代水文气象和地形等资料讨论可知,年最高潮平均潮位与沿海陆面的高差在总体上由南向北呈递减趋势,台风增水的总体增幅南大北小,以及海面的季节性变化特征为潮灾时空分布格局的主要影响因素。
[Abstract]:According to the disaster record of historical data and the records of coastal changes and artificial seawall construction, the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of tidal disaster in northern Jiangsu plain during historical period was analyzed by using the method of literature investigation. The overall pattern is as follows: in the Neolithic Age, in the weak disaster period, in the Han Dynasty as the prone period, in the Sui to the early Tang Dynasty as the multiple period, in the prosperous Tang Dynasty to the Song Dynasty as the main period, and also in the severe disaster period; after the Huanghe River seized the Huaihe River, the Yellow River seized the Huaihe River. According to the analysis of previous tidal disaster records from the Huanghe River to the end of the Qing Dynasty, the results show that, to the extent of harm, the spring tide disaster accounts for 30 percent of the total tide disaster year, and the middle tide disaster accounts for 35 percent of the total tide disaster year. The tide disaster occurs in time. In the spatial distribution, the probability of tidal disaster is decreasing from south to north. In addition, tidal disaster in drought period accounts for about 10 of the total tidal disaster. According to the data of modern hydrometeorology and topography, it can be seen that, in the spatial distribution, the occurrence probability of tidal disaster is decreasing from south to north. The height difference between the mean tidal level and the coastal land surface of the annual climax is decreasing from south to north, the total increase of typhoon water increase is small in the south and north, and the seasonal variation of sea surface is the main influencing factor of the temporal and spatial distribution pattern of tidal disaster.
【作者单位】：福建农林大学资源与环境学院;华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室;
【基金】：全球变化研究重大科学研究计划(2010CB951202)
【分类号】：P731.23

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