赤潮发生关键控制要素识别研究——以渤海为例

发布时间：2018-03-22 09:22

本文选题：赤潮　切入点：控制因子　出处：《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文以渤海为例,建立了赤潮发生关键控制因子的识别方法,主要包括文献因子检索汇总、备选因子筛选、备选因子关联性分析、影响因子独立性、变动性分析、关键控制因子的识别等环节。通过对1990—2009年20年间与渤海赤潮发生相关要素进行关联性分析,熵值法和变异系数法分析要素的波动性,通过灵敏度分析,将主成分分析和层次分析结合起来确定关键控制要素。结果显示,有14个要素累计贡献率达到了90%,命名为备选因素。基于横向和纵向关联性分析,保证了有9个可以量化的要素,通过变异性系数和熵值法计算要素的权重,表明N/P、DIN、DIP、COD和降水具有较强的信息分辨能力。基于主成分分析和层次分析的结果,渤海赤潮发生的关键控制要素主要是DIN、DIP和N/P。它表明在渤海海域赤潮频发的主要原因可能与养分的输入,尤其是过量的氮养分输入所造成的营养结构失衡有关。因此,一些措施例如增加控制污染,减少陆源养分输入和减轻水体富营养化程度为渤海赤潮的治理和预测提供了依据。
[Abstract]:In this paper, taking the Bohai Sea as an example, the identification method of the key control factors for the occurrence of red tide is established, which mainly includes literature factor retrieval summary, alternative factor selection, alternative factor correlation analysis, influence factor independence, variability analysis, etc. Identification of key control factors. Through the correlation analysis between 1990 and 2009 and the occurrence of red tide in Bohai Sea, entropy method and coefficient of variation method are used to analyze the volatility of the elements, and the sensitivity analysis is used. Combining principal component analysis and hierarchical analysis to identify key control elements. The results show that 14 elements have cumulative contribution rates of 90, named as alternatives, based on horizontal and vertical correlation analysis, Nine quantifiable elements are guaranteed. The coefficient of variability and the entropy method are used to calculate the weights of the elements. It is shown that N / P DINDINDIPCOD and precipitation have strong information resolution ability, based on the results of principal component analysis and hierarchical analysis. The key controlling factors of red tide in Bohai Sea are DINDIP and N / P. it indicates that the main cause of red tide frequency in Bohai Sea is probably related to nutrient input, especially the imbalance of nutrient structure caused by excessive nitrogen input. Some measures, such as increasing pollution control, reducing terrestrial nutrient input and reducing water eutrophication, provide basis for the control and prediction of red tide in the Bohai Sea.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学海洋化学理论与工程技术教育部重点实验室化学化工学院;南京大学生命分析化学国家重点实验室化学化工学院;
【基金】：国家重点研发项目(2016YFC1402101) 国家基金委-山东省联合基金项目(U1606404) 国家减灾中心项目:“渤海典型赤潮灾害预防及减灾技术预研”资助~~
【分类号】：X55

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