长江口盐水入侵自动化预报系统的设计与检验

发布时间：2018-04-02 08:28

本文选题：长江口　切入点：盐水入侵　出处：《华东师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：盐水入侵问题是入海河口普遍存在的现象,长江河口淡水资源的开发利用受河口盐水入侵的困扰,建立长江河口盐水入侵实时自动化的预报系统,对长江口,尤其是南支重要水源地盐度进行预报具有非常重要的实际价值和科学意义。本文首先介绍了长江口三重嵌套WRF天气模式,并采用2005年7月、11月以及2006年5月的大戟山、嵊山、余山、滩浒岛四个站点的实测风速进行验证,验证结果比较可靠。然后在课题组已有的长江口FVCOM模型的基础上,收集了最新的长江口区域海图数据,并对其进行了校准,然后根据水深数据对南北支区域的网格进行了加密,以期能够精细刻画南支盐度的平面分布,模型垂向混合采用了k-ε模型进行计算,此外较原模型开边界处8个主要分潮的基础上,添加了5个浅水分潮,在此基础上,分别对水位、流场、盐度进行了验证,证明了FVCOM模型在长江河口的可靠性。然后基于分别率定和检验后的WRF模型和长江口FVCOM模型,建立了一个能够每日运行的长江口盐水入侵预报系统。该系统能够实时更新上游径流驱动和河口风场驱动,在WRF模型计算未来3天风速较准的情况下,对长江口的盐水入侵做出3天的短期预报。该系统每天能够自动运行,集数据下载处理、模型计算、结果可视化输出以及备份于一体,仅需每天检查系统输出的可视化图片来查看长江口盐水入侵的情况,方便业务化操作,并且已经在国家海洋环境预报中心安装,处于试运行阶段。采用长江河口堡镇站2010～2012年枯季期间的实测盐度数据对预报系统进行后报检验,结果良好。最后,以2011年1月23日和2014年2月10日为例,运行系统,给出未来三天的盐度值,与野外台站实测盐度进行比较,结果表明预报系统能够较合理地给出南支主要站点的盐度预报结果,而北支盐度的精度有待改进,同时从2014年2月10日的检验结果推测这段时间北港水道进入南支的盐水入侵比较强。
[Abstract]:The problem of salt water intrusion is a common phenomenon in estuaries. The exploitation and utilization of freshwater resources in the estuary of the Yangtze River is troubled by the intrusion of salt water in the estuary. A real-time and automatic prediction system for salt water intrusion in the estuary of the Yangtze River is established.In particular, the prediction of salinity in important water sources in the southern branch is of great practical value and scientific significance.This paper first introduces the triple nested WRF weather model in the Changjiang Estuary, and verifies the measured wind speed of four stations in July, November, and May, 2005, Shengshan, Yushan and Tan Hu Island, and the results are reliable.Then, based on the existing FVCOM model of the Changjiang Estuary, the latest chart data of the Yangtze Estuary region are collected and calibrated, and then the grid of the north and south branch area is encrypted according to the water depth data.In order to depict the plane distribution of salinity in the southern branch, the vertical mixing of the model is calculated by using k- 蔚 model. In addition, five shallow water tides are added on the basis of eight main tidal components at the opening boundary of the original model.The water level, flow field and salinity are verified, and the reliability of the FVCOM model in the Yangtze River estuary is proved.Based on the WRF model and the FVCOM model of the Changjiang Estuary, a daily salt water intrusion prediction system for the Changjiang Estuary is established.The system can update the upstream runoff drive and estuary wind field drive in real time. Under the condition that the WRF model calculates the wind speed in the next 3 days, the short-term prediction of saline intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary is made for 3 days.The system can run automatically every day, including data download and processing, model calculation, result visual output and backup. It only needs to check the visual pictures of the system output every day to see the salt water intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary.Convenient for operational operation, and has been installed in the National Marine Environment forecasting Center, in the trial operation phase.Using the measured salinity data during the dry season from 2010 to 2012 at Baozhen Station in the estuary of the Yangtze River, the prediction system is tested and the results are satisfactory.Finally, taking January 23, 2011 and February 10, 2014 as examples, the salinity values for the next three days are given and compared with the measured salinity in field stations.The results show that the prediction system can reasonably give the salinity prediction results of the main stations in the southern branch, but the accuracy of the salinity in the north branch needs to be improved.At the same time, according to the test results of February 10, 2014, the salt water intrusion into the southern branch of the Beigang waterway is relatively strong during this period of time.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P731.2;P715

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