基于大数据旅游需求预测的舟山海洋旅游业发展研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 12:36

本文选题：舟山 + 海洋旅游业　；参考：《浙江海洋大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2013年,国务院批复了《浙江舟山群岛新区发展规划》,舟山成为中国首个国家级群岛新区。舟山海洋旅游业为了把握时机,更好应对市场需求和变化,旅游业的整体定位和规划对行业推动非常重要,是以要善于利用先进的科学技术作为支撑。而大数据作为一种新型的技术近年来已广泛应用于许多领域,旅游业也非常重视将大数据技术引进到旅游领域中,为旅游业的发展添加助力。游客的旅游需求影响舟山海洋旅游业的兴衰的重要因素之一,旅游需求的预测工作具有多样性和繁复性,因此本文中采用游客量数据具体化游客对舟山海洋旅游的需求,准确预测游客需求,不仅有利于舟山海洋旅游业的发展把握市场走向,使有关单位和部门能将工作直接落实到细微之处,将基础的旅游管理与服务协调一致,提高游客满意度,同时也会积极推动舟山海洋旅游业的良性运作。本文主要的研究内容如下,(1)阐述了大数据和海洋旅游的相关概念,大数据技术在旅游行业中的国内外研究现状,以及相关理论基础,针对基于大数据舟山海洋旅游需求预测建立了相关的研究路线。(2)利用NLPIR系统进行文本分析初选出关键词,结合百度指数拓展关键词,最后将筛选出的关键词进行相关性分析。(3)介绍了多元回归需求预测和ARMA这两种预测模型的基本原理,采用并建立相关的预测模型,用Eviews软件进行预测、分析。(4)以舟山海洋旅游为例进行具体的预测工作,对选出的关键词的百度指数数据进行处理,作为影响旅游需求的自变量,然后采用多元回归需求预测模型和ARMA模型对舟山海洋旅游需求展开预测,进而分析了预测的结果。从预测结果的中发现,这种需求预测方式重视旅游需求数据本身以及影响旅游需求的因素,希望对今后预测舟山海洋旅游需求、推动休闲农业工作起到积极的作用。
[Abstract]:In 2013, the State Council approved the Zhejiang Zhoushan Islands New area Development Plan, Zhoushan became China's first national archipelagic new area.In order to grasp the opportunity and better deal with the market demand and change, the overall positioning and planning of the tourism industry is very important to promote the industry, which is supported by the use of advanced science and technology.Big data, as a new type of technology, has been widely used in many fields in recent years. Tourism also attaches great importance to the introduction of big data technology into the field of tourism, adding help for the development of tourism.Tourist demand is one of the important factors influencing the rise and fall of Zhoushan marine tourism. The forecasting work of tourism demand is diverse and complicated. Therefore, the tourist volume data is used in this paper to concretize the tourists' demand for Zhoushan marine tourism.Accurate forecasting of tourist demand is not only conducive to the development of marine tourism in Zhoushan to grasp the market direction, so that the relevant units and departments can directly implement the work into details, coordinate the basic tourism management and services, and improve tourist satisfaction.At the same time will also actively promote the healthy operation of Zhoushan marine tourism.The main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the related concepts of big data and marine tourism, the domestic and foreign research status of big data technology in the tourism industry, and the relevant theoretical basis are expounded.Based on big data Zhoushan marine tourism demand prediction established a related research route. 2) using the NLPIR system for text analysis to select keywords, combined with Baidu index to expand the keyword,Finally, the correlation analysis of the selected keywords is carried out. (3) the basic principles of the two forecasting models, multivariate regression demand prediction and ARMA, are introduced. The relevant prediction models are adopted and established, and the prediction is carried out with Eviews software.Taking the marine tourism of Zhoushan as an example to carry on the concrete forecast work, processing the Baidu index data of the selected keywords, as the independent variable that affects the tourism demand,Then the multivariate regression demand forecasting model and ARMA model are used to forecast the demand of marine tourism in Zhoushan, and the results are analyzed.It is found from the forecast results that this demand forecasting method attaches importance to the data of tourism demand and the factors affecting tourism demand, hoping to play a positive role in predicting the demand for marine tourism in Zhoushan in the future and promoting the work of leisure agriculture.
【学位授予单位】：浙江海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P74;F592.7

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