基于案例推理的溢油污染应急处置系统研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 21:31

本文选题：溢油污染 + 应急处置　；参考：《大连理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：溢油造成的危害十分巨大,短期内可能造成动植物大量死亡,引发火灾,影响人类生命财产,如不及时进行有效处置,可能破坏区域的生态系统,造成严重生态灾难。因此,在溢油事故发生后,及时提供有效的处置技术至关重要。目前我国针对溢油污染建立了许多辅助决策系统,关注溢油的预警,溢油行为的模拟,以及溢油扩散的可视化等方面,而对应急处置技术的筛选与确定关注不足。针对我国溢油污染应急处置技术筛选研究较少的情况,本论文提出了基于案例推理的溢油污染应急处置技术筛选模型,并在此基础上构建了溢油污染应急处置系统。本文在研究国内外溢油案例和应急处置技术的基础上,对历史案例进行了统计分析,结果表明溢油的主要种类为原油,溢油的主要载体是船舶,具体原因包括船舶碰撞、搁浅、触礁等,溢油的地点主要是美国,而国内的溢油地点主要在广东省、山东省等沿海地区。对应急处置技术进行了整理总结,根据溢油的迁移转化规律,将溢油应急处置技术分为溢油污染源控制技术、溢油污染防扩散技术、溢油污染回收与消除技术、溢油污染应急废物处置技术等。并在此基础上构建了溢油污染事故案例库和应急处置技术库的基本框架。通过研究基于案例推理(CBR)的技术筛选模型,对案例推理的指标进行选择,建立了基于事故发生地点、发生原因、事故类型、油品种类、挥发性、天气状况、水流速度、保护目标和事故等级等9个方面的案例推理指标体系,利用层次分析法计算了每个指标的权重,分别为：0.1264,0.0513,0.3117,0.0686,0.0137,0.0617,0.0206,0.2595,0.0865,案例相似度计算采用K最近邻分类算法计算,为案例筛选与匹配奠定了基础。利用Oracle数据库、.Net框架、C#计算机语言及Visual Studio软件设计平台构建了溢油污染应急处置系统,对系统的框架、流程及网络结构进行了设计,对数据库的存储结构和实体-联系图进行研究,并对系统的基本功能进行构建和实现,系统能够实现对数据库内容的修改、添加和删除,可以根据突发溢油事故的数项评价指标从案例库中查找出与当前事故类似的匹配案例,从而得到匹配案例的应急处置技术,为当前事故应急处置技术方案的选取提供一定决策支持。
[Abstract]:The damage caused by oil spill is very great. In the short term, it may cause a large number of animals and plants to die, cause fire, affect human life and property, if not deal with effectively in time, it may damage the ecosystem of the region and cause serious ecological disaster. Therefore, it is very important to provide effective disposal technology in time after oil spill accident. At present, China has established many auxiliary decision systems for oil spill pollution, paying attention to the early warning of oil spill, simulation of oil spill behavior and visualization of oil spill diffusion, but insufficient attention has been paid to the screening and determination of emergency disposal technology. In view of the lack of research on the technology selection of oil spill pollution emergency disposal in China, a case-based reasoning (CBR) model of oil spill pollution emergency disposal technology selection is proposed in this paper, and the oil spill pollution emergency disposal system is constructed on the basis of this model. Based on the study of oil spill cases and emergency disposal technology at home and abroad, this paper makes a statistical analysis of historical cases. The results show that the main types of oil spill are crude oil, the main carrier of oil spill is ships, the specific reasons include ship collision, grounding, The oil spills are mainly located in the United States, while the domestic oil spills are mainly located in coastal areas such as Guangdong Province and Shandong Province. According to the law of oil spill migration and transformation, the emergency disposal technology of oil spill is divided into oil spill pollution source control technology, oil spill pollution non-proliferation technology, oil spill pollution recovery and elimination technology. Oil spill pollution emergency waste disposal technology. On this basis, the basic framework of oil spill pollution case database and emergency disposal technology database is constructed. By studying the CBR-based technical screening model and selecting the Case-Based reasoning (CBR) indexes, this paper establishes the accident location, cause, accident type, oil product type, volatility, weather condition, flow rate, etc. The index system of case-based reasoning in nine aspects, such as protection target and accident grade, is used to calculate the weight of each index by AHP. The weight of each index is: 0.1264-0.051331170.31170.01370.06170.06170.0206n 0.2595N 0.0865. The similarity of cases is calculated by K-nearest neighbor classification algorithm. It lays a foundation for case selection and matching. The oil spill emergency disposal system is constructed by using Oracle database. Net frame C # computer language and Visual Studio software design platform. The framework, flow chart and network structure of the system are designed. The storage structure and entity-contact diagram of the database are studied, and the basic functions of the system are constructed and implemented. The system can modify, add and delete the database content. According to several evaluation indexes of the sudden oil spill accident, the matching cases similar to the current ones can be found from the case base, and the emergency disposal technology of the matching cases can be obtained. It provides some decision support for the selection of emergency treatment technical scheme.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X55

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