琼州海峡海口站近岸风暴增水概率风险分析

发布时间：2018-04-25 22:08

  本文选题：琼州海峡 + Copula函数　； 参考：《海洋工程》2017年02期

【摘要】：基于海口站1976~1997年逐时潮位和逐日最大风速资料,利用阿基米德Copula函数构建海口年最大增水与相应日期最大风速的联合概率分布模型。结果表明:1)广义极值分布可作为海口站年最大增水和相应日期最大风速的边缘分布。两个序列之间存在强正相关关系,G-H Copula函数更适用于作为海口站年最大增水和相应日期的最大风速联合概率分布的连接函数。2)两变量联合作用的同频率增水高度设计值与增水的单变量边缘分布设计值之间的相对差值约为7.5%。3)条件概率1(P(Y≥y|X≥x))中同频率的年最大增水和相应风速的遭遇概率介于78.2%~80.9%,条件概率2(P(Y≥y|X≤x))中同频率的年最大增水和相应风速两者的遭遇概率小于4.8%。
[Abstract]:Based on the hourly tidal level and daily maximum wind speed data of Haikou station from 1976 to 1997, the joint probability distribution model of the maximum annual water increase and the maximum wind speed at the corresponding date is constructed by using Archimedes Copula function. The results show that the generalized extreme value distribution can be regarded as the marginal distribution of the maximum annual increase in water and the maximum wind speed at the corresponding date at Haikou station. There is a strong positive correlation between the two sequences. G-H Copula function is more suitable for the same frequency increase height of the joint action of two variables as the joint probability distribution of the maximum annual water increment and the maximum wind speed at the Haikou station at the corresponding date. The relative difference between the calculated value and the design value of the single variable edge distribution of increasing water is about 7.5. 3) in the conditional probability of 1(P(Y 鈮，

本文编号：1803187