江苏沿海风暴潮数值预报模式研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 01:24

本文选题：江苏沿海 + ADCIRC　；参考：《上海海洋大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：风暴潮是由于大气强烈扰动,引起海平面异常升高或海平面异常下降的现象。风暴潮灾害是我国面临的主要海洋灾害之一,几乎遍及中国沿海。登陆我国的台风和强温带天气过程往往造成风暴潮灾害,其成灾频率高、致灾强度大,造成的人员和经济损失惨重,目前已列入我国的巨灾种类。开展风暴潮灾害风险评估,完成风险区划,既能增强国家和地方政府风暴潮灾害的防御能力,又可以有效的降低风暴潮灾害风险,减少灾害造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,为沿海地区经济发展布局等提供科学依据。因此基于实况资料以及数值模式模拟对于风暴潮的分析具有十分重要的意义。风暴潮的预报在海洋预报业务中地位十分重要。风暴潮的预报主要分为经验统计预报和数值模拟预报两种方法。经验统计的方法主要采用回归分析和统计相关来建立指标站的风和气压与特定港口风暴潮位之间的经验预报方程或相关图表。此方法局限性较大,只能在少数有多年资料积累的特定港口应用。而风暴潮的数值模拟方法则克服了以上缺点。因此在实际业务中,预报员一般采用经验预报与数值预报相结合的方法,开展风暴潮预报业务。本文选择的研究区域是江苏沿海地区,重点研究区域是江苏省南通沿海岸段以及连云港岸段。首先基于ADCIRC海洋模式建立一个覆盖东中国海的水动力数值模式,在江苏省沿海岸段加密。通过对历史台风案列进行风暴潮模拟,并与实测资料的结果进行验证对比,对比结果显示模拟计算数值与实测数据资料比较接近,误差在可允许范围之内,得出了ADCIRC风暴潮模式可用于江苏沿海地区的增水研究。为了研究台风特征参数对于风暴增水的影响机制,文章中进行了一系列单变量敏感性实验。本文主要选取了台风中心气压、最大风速半径、台风中心移速以及台风移动路径4个变量进行敏感性实验,并设置了三条不同的台风路径(N1为靠近吕四北向路径,N2为远离吕四北向路径,NW为西北向路径)。结果表明:当台风其他特征参数保持不变情况下,台风中心气压值越低,增水值越大,增水极值也越高;中心气压与增水极值呈一定的线性关系。对于N1移向的台风,台风中心气压平均每下降30hPa,增水升高1.5838m;对于N2移向的台风,台风中心气压平均每下降30hPa,增水升高1.8824m;对于NW移向的台风,台风中心气压平均每下降30hPa时,增水极值平均升高2.1037m。在台风移动速度、台风中心气压均相同情形下,台风最大风速半径越大,增水极值发生的时刻也越早。最大风速半径与增水极值整体上呈现出正相关关系,最大风速半径越大,增水极值也越大,随着最大风速半径的不断增大,增水极值的升高趋势也会变缓,当最大风速半径增大到某个数值时,增水极值不在增大,而会下降。对于N1移向的台风,当最大风速半径增大为40km时,增水极值也达到最大,当最大风速半径大与40km时,增水极值开始下降;对于N2移向的台风,当最大风速半径为60km时,增水极值也达到最大,最大风速半径超过60km时,增水极值开始下降;对于NW移向的台风,随着选取的四个最大风速半径的不断增大,增水极值也在一直增大,不过最大风速半径为80km时的增水极值梯度明显变小。当台风中心气压、台风最大风速半径保持不变情况下,台风的移速越大,增水极值出现时刻越早,不过当台风移速过大时,并不有利于增水。风应力对于水体的作用并不是瞬时完成的,它需要一定的时间积累,台风中心移动速度越大,则风应力作用在水体上的时间越短,水位的变化过程也越短。从N2移动方向的台风增水曲线可以得知,移动速度越大,增水极值越小,反之,则越大。在所选取的三条路径中,NW移向的台风所导致的风暴增水整体上最高,增水极值最大,而N1移向的台风所导致的风暴增水最低,增水极值最小。说明在这三条路径中,NW移向的台风最有利于江苏沿海地区的增水。
[Abstract]:Storm surge is caused by strong atmospheric disturbance, which causes abnormal elevation of sea level or abnormality of sea level. Storm surge disaster is one of the major marine disasters in China, almost all over the coastal areas of China. The typhoon and strong temperate zone in China often cause storm tide disaster, which has high frequency and high intensity of disaster. There is a heavy loss of personnel and economy. At present, it has been included in the catastrophe of China. Carrying out the risk assessment of storm tide disaster and completing the risk zoning can not only enhance the defense ability of the storm surge disaster of the state and local government, but also effectively reduce the risk of storm tide disaster, reduce the casualties and property loss made by the disaster, and make the coastal area economy. It provides a scientific basis for the development of the layout and so on. Therefore, it is of great significance for the analysis of storm tide based on the fact data and numerical model simulation. The forecast of storm tide is very important in the ocean forecasting business. The forecast of storm tide is mainly divided into two methods: empirical and statistical prediction and numerical model prediction. The regression analysis and statistical correlation are used to establish the empirical equation or correlation chart between the wind and pressure of the index station and the specific port storm tidal level. This method is limited and can only be used in a few ports with years of data accumulation. The numerical simulation method of storm tide overcomes the above shortcomings. In the business, the forecaster generally adopts the method of combining experiential forecasting with numerical forecast to carry out the storm surge forecast business. The research area selected in this paper is the coastal area of Jiangsu, the key research area is the coastal section of Nantong and the Lianyungang Bank of Jiangsu province. First, based on the ADCIRC ocean model, the hydrodynamic number of the East China Sea is set up. The value model is encrypted along the coast of Jiangsu province. Through the storm tide simulation of the historical typhoon case, the comparison results are compared with the measured data. The comparison results show that the simulated calculation value is close to the measured data, and the error is within the allowable range, and the ADCIRC storm tide model can be used in the coastal areas of Jiangsu. In order to study the effect mechanism of typhoon characteristic parameters on storm surge, a series of single variable sensitivity experiments are carried out in this paper. This paper mainly selects 4 variables, the center pressure of the typhoon, the maximum wind radius, the velocity of the typhoon center and the moving path of the typhoon, and set up three different typhoon roads. The diameter (N1 is near the north route of LV four, N2 is far away from the north route of LV four and NW is north-west path). The results show that when the other characteristic parameters of the typhoon remain unchanged, the lower the central pressure of the typhoon, the greater the water increasing value, the higher the extreme value of the water increasing; the central pressure and the extreme value of water increase have a linear relationship. For the typhoon and typhoon moving towards the N1, the typhoon, the typhoon is in the typhoon, and the typhoon is in the typhoon, the typhoon is in the typhoon, the typhoon is in the typhoon, the typhoon is in the typhoon, the typhoon is in the typhoon, the typhoon is in the typhoon, the typhoon is in the typhoon, the typhoon The average heart pressure drops 30hPa, and the increase of water increases 1.5838m. For the typhoon of N2 shift, the average pressure of the typhoon center is decreased by 30hPa, and the increase of water increases 1.8824m. For the typhoon which moves toward the NW, the average increase of the central pressure of the typhoon is equal to the typhoon moving speed, and the typhoon center pressure is the same, the typhoon's center pressure is the same, the typhoon is the most The larger the radius of the large wind speed is, the earlier the extreme value of the water increase occurs. The maximum wind radius has a positive correlation with the maximum water increase, the greater the radius of the maximum wind speed, the greater the extreme value of the water increasing. With the increasing radius of the maximum wind speed, the increasing trend of the extreme value of the water increase will also slow down, when the maximum wind radius increases to a certain value. The extreme value of water increasing is not increasing, but it will decrease. For the N1 moving typhoon, when the maximum wind radius increases to 40km, the maximum water increase reaches the maximum. When the maximum wind radius is large and 40km, the extreme value of the water increase begins to decrease. For the typhoon with the N2 shift, the maximum water increase is also maximum when the maximum wind radius is 60km, and the maximum wind speed is more than 60K. At m, the extreme value of water increase begins to decrease, and for the typhoon which moves toward NW, the maximum water increase is increasing with the increasing radius of the four maximum wind speed, but the gradient of the maximum water increase is obviously smaller when the maximum wind radius is 80km. When the central pressure of the typhoon, the maximum wind speed of the typhoon keeps the same, the faster the speed of the typhoon, the greater the speed of the typhoon. The increase of water extremum is earlier, but it is not beneficial to increase water when the speed of typhoon moves too much. The effect of wind stress on water is not completed instantaneously. It needs a certain time to accumulate, the greater the moving speed of the typhoon center is, the shorter the time of the wind stress is on the water body and the shorter the process of the water level change. The direction of the movement of the water level is from the direction of N2. The greater the velocity of the typhoon, the greater the moving speed, the smaller the maximum water increase, and vice versa. In the selected three paths, the storm surge caused by the NW moving to the typhoon is the highest and the maximum water increase, while the storm caused by the N1 moving typhoon is the lowest, and the maximum water increase is minimum. It is indicated that in the three paths, the NW moves toward the maximum. The typhoon is most beneficial to the increase of water in the coastal areas of Jiangsu.

【学位授予单位】：上海海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P731.34

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