环境约束下中国海洋经济增长绩效评价与影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 13:57

本文选题：海洋经济 + SBM方向性距离　；参考：《浙江财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：自“十一五规划”以来,中国海洋经济快速发展,但仍处于起步阶段。海洋经济增长绩效如何变化,如何提升海洋经济整体实力备受关注。但在目前测度中国海洋经济增长绩效的文献中,主要存在如下三个问题：(1)没有考虑非期望产出对中国海洋经济的影响；(2)中国海洋经济增长绩效评价采用传统的DEA模型,很少采用非径向、非角度的基于松弛的效率测度方法进行评价;(3)对于已经到达生产前沿面的生产决策单元来说目前已有的文献只说明其是有效率的,并没有对这些决策单元以后该如何发展给出相应的对策。本文综合考虑上述三方面,利用1996-2011年中国沿海11个省市海洋经济面板数据,加入环境约束后采用非径向、非角度的基于松弛的效率测度方法(SBM),在构建理想可实现前沿面的基础上结合不同生产前沿面的特点,发展了一种新型生产率指数测度方法对中国海洋经济增长绩效进行评价,其中海洋经济增长绩效评价包括静态绩效评价(效率评价)与动态绩效评价(全要素生产率评价);并且采用空间Tobit面板数据模型对海洋经济增长绩效进行因素分析,结果如下所述。从中国海洋经济增长静态绩效分析,本文研究表明：(1)根据中国海洋经济增长年均静态绩效可知,中国海洋经济的无效率主要由期望产出和非期望产出(污染)引起,其中期望产出的无效率比重在上升,非期望产出(污染)比重在下降。(2)根据中国海洋经济增长区域静态绩效可知,各地区2006年后海洋经济发展效率相比2006年前有所提高,综合经济发展的不平衡间接导致了海洋经济发展的不平衡。(3)根据中国海洋经济不同生产前沿面的过渡角度分析,上海、广东已经到达全局生产前沿面,广东应该提高海洋经济中劳动的技术水平,上海需要提高治污的技术水平；对没有达到全局生产前沿面的省份来说,海南、广西既要改善海洋经济投入产出结构,又需要提高期望产出的技术进步；其他地区主要应该改善目前海洋经济投入产出结构,进而更快地达到海洋经济全局生产前沿面。从中国海洋经济增长动态绩效分析,本文研究表明：(1)根据中国海洋经济增长年均动态绩效可知,2006年前理想可实现环境全要素生产率(LTTP_Ideal)年均下降2.1%,2006年后年均增长0.7%；其中与技术进步有关的理想可实现环境全要素生产率(LTIdeal)在2006年增长了9.7%,但是2006年以后一直呈现年均下降趋势,即“十一五规划”将中国海洋经济推向了较高的生产前沿面,但随后前沿面又出现了退步。(2)根据中国海洋经济增长区域动态绩效可知,2006年后各地区LTFP Ideal相对2006年前都有所提高；2006年后“高”地区、“低”地区LTFP_Ideal呈年均增长趋势,“中”地区LTFP_Ideal呈年均下降趋势；2006年后海洋经济LTFP Ideal呈下降趋势的地区主要源于海洋经济期望产出生产率的下降。(3)根据与技术落差有关的海洋经济环境全要素生产率(LTG)可知,落后地区具有后发优势,海洋经济技术的进步可以在政策刺激以后逐年有所提高,但是发达地区原本的技术水平已经比较高了,政策刺激以后再让它加快技术进步的步伐,其就比较乏力,因而海洋经济发展的趋势就趋缓了。从中国海洋经济增长绩效影响因素分析,本文研究表明：(1)从空间效应角度分析,中国海洋经济增长静态绩效与海洋经济增长动态绩效存在正的空间溢出效应,因此在中国海洋经济发展过程中,要充分地发挥其空间效应带来的海洋经济效率与技术的进步。(2)中国海洋经济增长静态绩效与海洋实际生产总值存在U型关系,2011年各地区都已经处于效率对称轴的右方进行生产。目前中国海洋经济劳动与资本之间的生产禀赋结构需要调整；中国海洋经济第三产业水平的提高及地区开放程度有利于效率的提高,但是它们对效率提高的速度在减缓。降低地区污染排放与提高人力资本的质量与效率,可促进中国海洋经济发展。中国海洋经济的发展受政策影响显著, “十一五规划”政策促进了中国海洋经济效率与全要素生产率的提高,进而促进了海洋经济的发展。
[Abstract]:Since the "11th Five-Year plan", China's marine economy has developed rapidly, but it is still in its infancy. The changes in the performance of marine economic growth and how to improve the overall strength of the marine economy have attracted much attention. However, there are three main problems in the current literature on the performance of China's marine economic growth: (1) the undesired output is not considered. The impact on China's marine economy; (2) the performance evaluation of China's marine economic growth adopts the traditional DEA model, and is rarely used to evaluate the non radial and non angle based method based on the relaxation efficiency measurement. (3) the existing literature on the production decision-making unit that has already reached the production frontier only shows that it is efficient. Based on the above three aspects, this paper makes use of the marine economic panel data of 11 provinces and cities of China's coastal areas for 1996-2011 years, and then adopts the non radial and non angle based relaxation efficiency measurement method (SBM) after joining the environmental constraints in the coastal areas of China for 1996-2011 years, and on the basis of constructing the ideal frontiers. Based on the characteristics of different production frontiers, a new productivity index measurement method is developed to evaluate the growth performance of China's marine economy, in which the performance evaluation of marine economic growth includes static performance evaluation (efficiency evaluation) and dynamic performance evaluation (total factor productivity evaluation), and the spatial Tobit panel data model is used. The results are analyzed as follows. From the static performance analysis of China's marine economic growth, the study shows that: (1) according to the annual average static performance of China's marine economic growth, the inefficiency of China's marine economy is mainly caused by expected output and undesired output (pollution), of which the expected output is invalid. The proportion of the ratio is rising, and the proportion of undesired output (pollution) is decreasing. (2) according to the static performance of China's marine economic growth region, the development efficiency of marine economy in every region after 2006 has been improved compared with that before 2006, and the imbalance of comprehensive economic development has led to the imbalance of the development of marine economy. (3) according to the different marine economy in China The transition angle of production frontier analysis, Shanghai, Guangdong has reached the global production front, Guangdong should improve the technical level of labor in the marine economy, Shanghai needs to improve the technical level of pollution control. For provinces that have not reached the global production front, Hainan and Guangxi should not only improve the input and output structure of the marine economy, but also need to improve the investment and output structure of the marine economy. In order to improve the technological progress of expected output, other areas should improve the present input-output structure of the marine economy and reach the global production front of the marine economy. From the dynamic performance analysis of China's marine economic growth, this paper shows that: (1) according to the annual dynamic performance of China's marine economic growth, the ideal of the year 2006 is ideal. Environmental Total Factor Productivity (LTTP_Ideal) can be reduced by 2.1% annually, and the average annual growth rate is 0.7% after 2006. The ideal available environmental total factor productivity (LTIdeal), which is related to technological progress, has increased by 9.7% in 2006, but the annual decline trend has been shown since 2006, that is, the "11th Five-Year plan" has pushed the Chinese marine economy to the end. Higher level of production frontiers, but the subsequent frontiers have regressed. (2) according to the regional dynamic performance of China's marine economic growth, the LTFP Ideal in all regions after 2006 has been improved relative to 2006; after 2006, the "high" area, the "low" region LTFP_Ideal growth trend, the "middle" area LTFP_Ideal in the annual decline trend. The trend of the downward trend of LTFP Ideal in marine economy after 2006 is mainly due to the decline in expected output productivity of marine economy. (3) according to the total factor productivity (LTG) of the marine economic environment related to the technical gap, the backward areas have the post advantage, and the progress of marine economic technology can be raised year by year after the policy stimulus. High, but the technical level of the developed area is already relatively high, and the policy is stimulated to speed up the pace of technological progress. The trend of the development of marine economy is slow. From the analysis of the influence factors of the performance of China's marine economic growth, the study shows: (1) from the angle of spatial effect, the Chinese ocean There is a positive spatial spillover effect on the static performance of economic growth and the dynamic performance of marine economic growth. Therefore, in the course of China's marine economy development, the marine economic efficiency and technological progress brought about by its spatial effect should be fully played. (2) there is a U relationship between the static performance of China's marine economic growth and the real value of the marine actual production, 2011 Every region has been produced in the right side of the efficiency symmetry axis in the year. At present, the production endowment structure between labor and capital in China's marine economy needs to be adjusted; the improvement of the third industry level of China's marine economy and the degree of regional openness are beneficial to efficiency, but their speed of increasing efficiency is slowing down. The development of China's marine economy is greatly influenced by the pollution of the emission and the improvement of the quality and efficiency of human capital. The development of China's marine economy has been greatly influenced by the policy. The policy of "11th Five-Year planning" has promoted the improvement of China's marine economic efficiency and the total factor productivity, and thus promoted the development of the marine economy.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P74

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