基于分形理论的漫堤风险分析

发布时间：2018-05-11 01:40

本文选题：分形分布 + 海堤　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：海堤是海岸防护的主要工程措施，用来抵御风浪侵袭，保护海岸、河口地区免受大潮、高潮和风暴潮袭击，对维护社会经济和居民财产安全具有重要意义。台风诱发的各种极端海况极易引发海堤洪水漫溢失事，寻求合理有效方法对多个风险因素共同作用引发洪水漫溢失事进行风险分析，是本文研究的重点。本文着眼于水文尺度与水文现象的自相似性，用分形理论研究了海堤洪水漫溢失事风险因子-潮水、风暴增水和上游洪水在时间尺度上的特性。在充分考虑潮水、风暴增水和上游洪水不确定性的前提下，建立了潮水、风暴增水和上游洪水共同作用的基于分形分布的FLR及FLC R约束条件的组合风险分析模型，并将新模型应用到上海吴淞口内海堤洪水漫溢风险分析中。最后用互信息的方法对两种组合风险分析模型进行风险分析的可靠性进行定量描述，计算结果表明，基于FLC R约束条件的组合风险分析方法比基于FLR约束条件的组合风险分析方法更加可靠。
[Abstract]:Seawall is the main engineering measure of coastal protection, which is used to protect the coastal and estuarine areas from the attack of spring tide, high tide and storm surge, which is of great significance to the maintenance of social economy and the safety of residents' property. Various extreme sea conditions induced by typhoons can easily lead to flood overflowing accidents of seawalls. It is the focus of this paper to find a reasonable and effective method to analyze the risk of flood overflowing accidents caused by multiple risk factors. Based on the self-similarity between hydrological scale and hydrological phenomena, the characteristics of flood overflow risk factors in seawall such as tide, windburst and upstream flood on time scale are studied by fractal theory in this paper. On the premise of considering the uncertainty of tide, wind surge and upstream flood, a combined risk analysis model based on fractal distribution FLR and FLC R constraint conditions is established for the interaction of tidal water, wind surge and upstream flood. The new model is applied to the flood risk analysis of Shanghai Wusong seawall. Finally, the reliability of two combined risk analysis models is quantitatively described by mutual information method. The results show that, The combination risk analysis method based on FLC R constraint condition is more reliable than the combination risk analysis method based on FLR constraint condition.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P753;O189

【参考文献】